Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.
There is no shortage of sports to bet on Saturday, and MLB doesn’t lack for action with 16 games to choose from.
Our action tonight starts with New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies in a matchup beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET before we shift our focus to the other New York team with the Mets hosting the San Diego Padres.
Check out each pick complete with a full breakdown, and use the table below to navigate to either game.
MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Padres vs. Mets | 4:10 p.m. ET |
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
| Pick | Yankees -120 |
| Book | <!–FanDuel–>FanDuel |
| Pitchers | Jameson Taillon vs. Vince Velasquez |
| First Pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
Kenny Ducey: The Phillies have won four out of six, capturing back-to-back series over formidable NL East competition, but the one area they’ve particularly struggled in all season long — offense — has still been a bit of a struggle.
Despite all the winning, the Phillies still have a 96 wRC+ over the past week, hitting just .240. Rhys Hoskins has strung together a few hitless games, Alec Bohm is still in a slump and Bryce Harper has looked pedestrian, coming in without a hit in his last seven at-bats.
Put simply, I’m not scared of this lineup, and I don’t think Jameson Taillon will be either. He’s one of the biggest positive regression candidates in the league with a 3.68 xERA contrasting with his 5.09 real-life ERA, and has flashed the best strikeout stuff of his career with just a .375 xwOBA on contact to go along with it.
This Yankees offense seemed to wake up in Minnesota, and even though it won’t have Giancarlo Stanton, who apparently is not yet ready to play the field in this series, I will still back it against a pitcher as awful as Vince Velasquez.
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Padres vs. Mets
| Pick | No Runs First Inning (NRFI) |
| Book | <!–DraftKings–>DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Joe Musgrove vs. Marcus Stroman |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
Tanner McGrath: This is a perfect spot for a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bet.
The only red flag here is the Mets offense. Over the past seven days, the Mets are second in both OPS (.926) and wRC+ (157). They’re an underrated offense that has been smashing the ball lately, which is something I avoid with NRFI bets.
However, Joe Musgrove is the perfect antidote for that. This season, Musgrove is striking out a lot of guys (12.2 per nine), while not allowing too many home runs (1.1 per nine) and posting an absurdly low WHIP (.84). He’s also allowed zero first-inning runs in 11 starts this season.
Additionally, the Mets haven’t had a lot of success against Musgrove. Kevin Pillar/Francisco Lindor/Dominic Smith/Jose Pereza are a combined 10-for-42 lifetime against Musgrove, posting a .238 BA with an xBA hovering around .200. And while it is true that the Mets picked up three runs on Musgrove in his last outing, he kept them scoreless until the fifth frame and posted a 1.15 xFIP in the start, indicating he was a little unlucky.
I like Marcus Stroman to get through the first inning today as well. His strikeout rate is just okay (7.44 per nine), but he’s allowing very few home runs (.88 per nine) and has posted a pretty good WHIP (1.08).
Most importantly, however, Stroman has been dominant in the first frame. He’s posted a .75 first-inning ERA this season, as he’s allowed a first-inning run in just two of his 12 starts. He’s posted a scoreless first inning in six straight starts.
Meanwhile, the Padres offense is 22nd in first-inning runs per game (.45) and have been the worst offense in baseball over the past seven days (.518 OPS, 52 wRC+). Plus, Tommy Pham/Manny Macahdo/Jake Cronenworth/Fernando Tatis Jr./Wil Myers are a combined 9-for-45 against Stroman lifetime (.200 BA), and Stroman tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings when he faced the Padres on June 6.
You’re going to see this line up over -150 at most books (-160 at PointsBet, -150 at FanDuel), but I played it at -136 on DraftKings where I believe it still holds value.
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