Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Hader.
Brewers vs. Marlins Odds
| Brewers Odds | +124 |
| Marlins Odds | -146 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Friday morning and via FanDuel. | |
The Brewers look to end their losing streak on Friday as they travel to Miami to open up a weekend series with the Marlins.
Milwaukee is coming off a sweep in a four-game series at the hands of the Phillies and has relinquished its lead in the NL Central to St. Louis. The Brewers were incredibly unlucky as their four losses came by a combined five runs.
They’ll send Brent Suter to the mound for a likely a bullpen game to try and end their five-game skid.
The Marlins are coming off a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, which has now brought them back to within two games of the lead in the NL East.
They’ll send one of their best pitchers Trevor Rogers to the mound to see if he can keep their winning streak going.
Offensive Matchup
Milwaukee Brewers
Despite the hot start to the season, Milwaukee has been struggling offensively.
The Brewers enter Friday night near the bottom of MLB with a .301 wOBA and 88 wRC+. However, a lot of that was with Christian Yelich on the injured list for two weeks. The bad news is, Yelich has yet to get healthy and has been placed back on the 10-day IL.
Christian Yelich placed on 10-day IL. https://t.co/4AG0IrcB1X
— FantasyLabs MLB (@FantasyLabsMLB) May 4, 2021
However, the Brewers will have a good matchup against Rogers because they’ve been crushing left-handed pitching. Milwaukee ranks fifth in wOBA and seventh in hard-hit percentage against lefties. The Brewers are also the third-best team in baseball against fastballs so far this season, which is the pitch Rogers has thrown over 60% of the time.
Miami Marlins
Much like the Brewers, the Marlins offense has not been the reason they are close to .500. Through the first 30 games of the season, Miami boasts only a .298 wOBA and 91 wRC+. The biggest problem is Miami isn’t hitting for any power, as they have the fifth-fewest home runs in baseball.
However, it’s been pretty good versus left-handed pitching with a .260 batting average and .335 wOBA. It likely won’t see Suter for very long and it has somewhat struggled versus right-handed pitching, so it could be a long night for the Marlins.
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Starting Pitching Matchup
Brent Suter vs. Trevor Rogers
2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via FanGraphs)
Brewers Starting Pitcher
Brent Suter, LHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Suter has mainly pitched out of the bullpen for the past three years, but he’s been incredibly effective. Since 2019, Suter has posted an xERA and xFIP under 3.75, which is amazing since he has such low velocity.
Last season, his fastball averaged only 85.4 mph, and he threw it over 70% of the time. He’s a fantastic change-of-pace pitcher out of the bullpen, but as soon as he has to face a lineup multiple times, that’s when he runs into trouble.
My guess is Suter will not last long in this game as the Brewers go for more of a bullpen game.
Marlins Starting Pitcher
Trevor Rogers, LHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Rogers is having a fantastic season so far, posting a 2.88 xERA and 3.31 xFIP. The reason for that is because he’s striking out batters left and right with a K/9 of 12.00.
The biggest improvement for Rogers in 2021 has been his fastball. Last season, opponents crushed it to the tune of a .440 wOBA, but this season, he’s brought that down to .312. He’s starting to utilize his changeup more often, too. That’s by far his best pitch, as opponents hit only .129 against it.
Good-lookin' changeup strikeout from Trevor Rogers pic.twitter.com/jyhrzl25Aa
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) August 31, 2020
He’ll have a tough matchup against Milwaukee, though, which is top-10 against both fastballs and changeups.
Bullpen/Defensive Matchup
Milwaukee has one of the best bullpens in baseball and will have the advantage in this matchup.
However, the Brewers haven’t lived up to expectations through the first month of the season, posting a 4.42 xFIP. This will be a bullpen game for them, and the good news is they’ll have everyone available.
The Marlins’ bullpen has been incredibly solid this season, posting a 3.46 ERA and 4.02 xFIP, so we’ll see if they can keep that going against Milwaukee’s lineup.
Brewers-Marlins Pick
Even though Yelich is not in the lineup, this is still a great matchup for the Brewers — especially given how good they are against lefties, fastballs, and changeups.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is still one of the best in baseball despite its early-season struggles, so I expect it to shine Friday night in Miami.
Since I have the Brewers projected at +102, I think there’s some value on them at +124 (FanDuel).
Pick: Brewers +124
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