Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Quintana.
Twins vs. Angels Odds
| Twins Odds | -108 |
| Angels Odds | -108 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 9:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. | |
The Angels took the first game of their three-game series with the Twins by a score of 10-3. Los Angeles plated six runs in the seventh inning behind a Justin Upton grand slam to put the game out of reach.
On Saturday night, they’ll go for the series win against a familiar face in Matt Shoemaker. The Michigan native spent most of his career with the Angels before moving onto the Blue Jays and now the Twins.
Shoemaker will be opposed José Quintana for the Angels. Quintana will look to bounce back from a disastrous outing in which he lasted only 1 2/3 innings after allowing five earned runs and four walks.
This game could have the elements of a high-scoring contest. And with an opening total at nine, the oddsmakers seem to agree.
In fact, the opening total could be the added clue we need for a possible play on the over in this game.
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Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota offense hasn’t given Shoemaker much to complain about in his two starts this season. In his first outing, it scored 15 runs for him, and in the second, it backed him with six runs in the game. The Twins are one of the best run-creating teams in the league, as they’re ranked eighth with a wRC+ value of 107.
Part of their collective success at the plate stems from their commitment to making opposing pitchers work. Minnesota doesn’t hurt itself by chasing balls out or the strike zone. It’s ranked seventh in the fewest swings outside the zone (28.5%), per FanGraphs.
That should be key against a pitcher like Quintana, who throws only 29.3% of his pitches inside the zone.
Quintana’s command, or lack thereof, has really let him down this season. Through two games, he has a 12.60 BB/9 ratio. He’s been repeatedly falling behind hitters as he’s only throwing first-pitch strikes 50% of the time.
There shouldn’t be too many surprises for Minnesota when it faces Quintana. After all, it should be quite familiar with him from his time pitching in its division with the White Sox.
In 108 at-bats against Quintana, the Twins’ current lineup is hitting .278 with four home runs, a .481 slugging percentage, and a .354 wOBA.
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Los Angeles Angels
Like Minnesota, Los Angeles has been one of the better offensive teams in the league. It’s currently ranked fifth with an above-average wRC+ value of 117. It’s also one of eight teams with a slugging percentage over .400.
This is certainly a team that knows how to put the ball in play. Its strikeout rate is just 22.1%, which puts it at fifth in the majors. It’ll be going up against Shoemaker, who doesn’t generate a ton of ground balls, as evidenced by his 0.67 GB/FB ratio.
If we like the Angels’ chances to continue to put the ball in play against Shoemaker, it wouldn’t surprise me if a few of those hits leave the ballpark.
Los Angeles is ranked seventh in contact percentage (76.5%), and teams that have been able to lift the ball in the air against Shoemaker have made him pay when you consider his below-average HR/FB ratio that sits at 20%.
Lastly, if any team should know Shoemaker inside and out, it’s the Angels. The right-hander spent his first six years in the big leagues in their organization, so the Angels should be well-informed on all of his tendencies and which pitch he’s most comfortable with in certain counts.
Twins-Angels Pick
With two top-tier offensive teams facing off, I like our chances at the over in this spot. And when you factor in Quintana’s erraticness with his command, coupled with Shoemaker’s inability to generate a significant amount of ground balls, I think our case is even stronger.
Our Action Labs weather map shows the wind will be blowing out toward the outfield, and during the first hour, it will be as high as 8.2 mph.
The total total for this game actually opened at nine, and that could be significant considering that since 2019, the total at Angel Stadium of Anaheim is 21-13 to the over when it opens at that number.
I think the oddsmakers are correct in their assumption that this game could see plenty of runs cross home plate given the tendencies of both pitchers and two dynamite offenses.
If you’re shopping around, take a look at FanDuel, as they have the best price on the board with over 9 at -106.
Pick: Over 9 (-106)
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