Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | +100 |
| Phillies Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
Did you hear? The Phillies are now in first place in the NL East. And, for the first time since May 7, the Mets no longer hold that crown.
It’s a bit unfortunate, as the Mets haven’t been as bad as just unlucky — specifically with injuries. They had big names start the season on the injured list (Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard), have lost reinforcements during the season (Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson), and are currently suffering from injuries to their two best players (Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor).
However unfortunate, the Phillies have stepped up and taken advantage. Bryce Harper has re-emerged as an MVP candidate, and the addition of Kyle Gibson could prove monumental in the divisional race.
Although they lost the opener, I wouldn’t expect the Mets to roll over and die in this series. Let’s dive into where the value lies in this matchup.
_BookPromo=73
Tough Time to Be a Mets Fan
Life without deGrom isn’t worth living. Well, at least if you’re a Mets fan.
Disregard the injuries, and this should be the most talented rotation in the majors. Instead, the Mets’ starters have posted a 4.86 FIP and a 1.42 WHIP over the past 30 days — both stats that rank among the bottom 10 teams during that stretch.
And if you’re a Mets fan, that sucks even more considering how hot the offense has been. Over the past 30 days, the Mets have posted the third-highest wRC+ in MLB (113) while posting the seventh-highest wOBA (.331).
So, despite their offensive success, the Mets are just 14-16 in their last 30 games, and 3-7 in their last 10.
Luckily, however, they have their best young pitcher on the mound today in Tylor Megill.
Megill has made eight MLB starts in his young career and has been a stud in all of them. He’s allowed more than three runs just twice while allowing one run or fewer five times. He’s piled up quality starts and has a 2.68 ERA to show for it.
Moreover, however, Megill’s insane batted ball stats (3.6% barrel rate, 39.1% hard-hit rate, 88.3 mph average exit velocity) have led to expected stats that are even lower. Megill’s posted a 2.42 xERA this season while allowing just a .241 xwOBA.
All-in-all, the Mets are 6-2 in Megill starts this season.
Positive Regression Finally Coming for Harper
Bryce Harper is not of this planet.
To be fair, we should have seen this coming. Harper’s expected statistics have been off the charts all season — so much so that he’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season.
However, the positive regression train has pulled into Harper station, and boy, is it sweet. Since July started, Harper has posted a .352/.462/.667 slash with a 1.129 OPS, as he’s posted 22 singles, 16 doubles and six home runs in 108 ABs.
And guess what? The Phillies are 20-11 in those games. Harper’s led the resurgence of baseball in Philadelphia this season and might just win an NL MVP while doing it.
Plus, the Phillies added major reinforcements in Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy and Freddy Galvis. Dave Dombrowski has built an all-around roster that’s playing the best baseball in the division.
Meanwhile, the starter today is one of the more intriguing names in baseball, as Ranger Suarez has gone from middle reliever to closer to starter in just this season.
However, he’s deserving of it, as he’s posted a 1.04 ERA and 2.62 xERA in his 28 varying appearances this season. He mainly throws a sinker, and it’s keeping average exit velocities way down (84.4 mph) while producing a lot of ground balls (64%). All in all, Suarez has allowed just a .189 xBA and a .278 xSLG this season.
Mets-Phillies Pick
These are two relatively unknown pitchers, but they’ve been absolutely shoving so far this season. Therefore, I think they may be slightly undervalued in the market.
The total for this game sits at 9.5, slightly juiced to the over. However, our Action PRO model projects this total at 8.84, providing lots of value on the under 9.5 at short odds.
While the offenses are both hot, the Mets and Phillies are still 4-1 to the under in their last five matchups. Play the under 9.5 and expect more of the same today.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-105)
_BookPromo=74