Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds
| Mets Odds | -105 |
| Nationals Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-105/-112) |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet. | |
In a surprising turn of events, the fourth-place Washington Nationals are looking to steal three of four from their series with the first-place New York Mets in Sunday’s meeting.
That’s especially stunning given how well the Mets have been playing recently. New York is far and away the class of the National League East and its upcoming schedule provides some interesting opportunities.
With Taijuan Walker and Patrick Corbin on the mound for these clubs, let’s dive into which angle provides the best value.
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Mets Continue Surge Atop NL East
New York is in a really good spot right now.
The Mets are winning games (18-12 in their last 30) and hold a four-game lead in the NL East. However, the Mets have an opportunity to break open a huge lead in the division, as their next 13 games are all against divisional opponents.
Additionally, New York is winning these games with a laundry list of injury issues. It makes it scary to think about what the Mets could do when fully healthy. Specifically, the starting rotation, as Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco should be back soon, and it seems that Jacob deGrom, who was pulled from his last start early, is going to be just fine.
In their absence, Marcus Stroman has stepped up big, and today’s starter — Taijuan Walker — has made massive strides this season. After a flurry of just OK seasons in Seattle and Arizona, Walker is putting together a career season. He’s posted a 2.12 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP through 12 starts this season, and the Mets are an amazing 10-2 in his starts this season.
Surging Nationals Hoping to Grab Another Victory
Washington has a chance to take three of four from first-place New York and move within five games of the division lead.
Unfortunately, due to injuries to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin is the guy the Nationals will be turning to in this spot. Corbin is having a terrible season, maybe the worst of his career, but he’s coming off the best start he’s had so far.
Five days ago, Corbin turned in 8 1/3 shutout innings, recording seven strikeouts and a win. It was against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, but it could be a big turn in momentum for a guy who has posted close to a 6.00 ERA.
Despite the tough injuries, the pitching has been good for the Nationals. The bullpen has recorded the third lowest FIP of any team over the last 30 days (3.37) and the starters have posted the eighth lowest FIP over the same stretch (3.77).
Of course, the lineup has been pathetic this season. The Nationals are second to last in runs per game (3.75) and last in home runs per game (3.26). Combine its decent pitching with their disgusting offense and Washington is an amazing 45-21-2 to the under this season.
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Mets-Nationals Pick
The betting market for this matchup is an intriguing one to say the least.
The Mets opened as -125 favorites, but despite more than 70% of the bets and the handle coming in on New York, the Nationals are now slight favorites. Meanwhile, the total opened at 8, but despite 90% of the handle coming in on the under, the total has been pushed up to 8.5 runs.
The last time Walker and Corbin faced off, Walker pitched a gem (7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 K) while Corbin got lit up (4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 K). Both bullpens did their part and the game finished 4-0 for New York.
While Corbin is coming off an excellent start, I think the Mets offense will get to him again today. Additionally, Walker has been pitching awesome all season, and I think he shuts down a Nationals offense that has posted the seventh lowest wRC+ in June (94).
That’s why I believe the best bet is on the Mets in the first five innings. I would be it to -115 odds and look for Walker and the Mets offense to out-duel their counterparts in the early going of this showdown.
Pick: Mets F5 (-110 — Play to -115)
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