Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | -159 |
| Marlins Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fox Sports 1 |
| Odds via Bet Rivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Both the Miami Marlins and New York Mets have played well in the last 10 games, and the Mets have kept themselves within striking distance in the wild-card and National League East races.
New York heads to Miami to take on highly touted prospect Edward Cabrera. The savvy vet, Carlos Carrasco, will start opposite him for the Mets.
Both have been average as of late, but which team has the edge?
Carrasco Faces Miami Again
Carrasco pitched 5 1/3 innings and allowed three runs in his last outing, which happened to come against the Marlins.
Outside of two rough appearances in early August, he has looked solid as of late. Carrasco will primarily feature a four-seamer, changeup and slider. His slider could be key on Tuesday night because the Marlins have struggled with that pitch since the trade deadline. Miami has a .252 xwOBA against sliders in that span.
The Marlins also have the second-highest strikeout rate on the season. Since Carrasco only walks 4.1% of hitters, he will have the advantage with his accuracy.
The Mets have been exactly league average when facing righties since the deadline (100 wRC+). Losing Brandon Nimmo to the injured list also does not help, but J.D. Davis, Michael Conforto, Kevin Pillar, Javy Báez, Jonathan Villar, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso all have wOBAs of .348 or higher against right-handers in that timeframe.
New York has a decent bullpen, but it has gotten a bit lucky since the end of July. The Mets relief corps’ 3.38 ERA is eighth in baseball, but its xFIP is 4.38 at that same time.
That said, the bullpen is healthy outside of Jake Reed and Drew Smith. The Mets should be fully rested with the off-day on Monday to go full steam ahead. If the game gets close, Edwin Díaz, Heat-h Hembree, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro should all be available.
Miami Marlins
Cabrera only has two starts to his name in the majors. Both have been fine, but the Mets did tally seven hits during four innings his last time out. It’s potentially a bad matchup for him since throws his changeup 33.6% of the time, and the Mets only hold a .303 xwOBA on changeups since the deadline. New York has a .314 xwOBA on his second-most-thrown pitch, the fastball, too.
The Mets have been hitting better in general of late. Also, having seen Cabrera once should put them in good shape.
This Marlins lineup is pretty weak since the beginning of August against right-handers. It ranks 26th in the MLB in that time in wRC+. As stated above, Miami’s strikeout numbers are abysmal at 26.2%.
Brian Anderson, one of their most productive hitters, has landed on the injured list. Miami still has Jazz- Chisholm, Jr., Jesús Enrique Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and Miguel Rojas above the 100 wRC+ mark, but it’s more effective when facing left-handed pitching.
Finally, the Marlins have a below-average bullpen. Their 4.40 ERA and 4.08 xFIP since July 31 is pretty weak. Ross Detwiler, Richard Bleier and the rest should all be available to go in this matchup, though, so at least Miami will have its best arms at Don Mattingly’s disposal. Even though the Marlins relief corps aren’t great, it’s not a huge advantage for New York.
Mets-Marlins Pick
This game comes down to the Marlins and their inability to hit right-handers in the second half. Carrasco has a strong enough arsenal and enough experience to carve them up, so that gives the Mets a leg up on the competition.
Take the Mets alternate spread at -1 (-125) and play to -145.
Pick: New York Mets -1 (-125)
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