Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Marlins starting pitcher Trevor Rogers.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | -130 |
| Marlins Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Two left-handed pitchers take the mound Thursday on Getaway Day in South Beach. Both should be excited, as the New York Mets and Miami Marlins are a combined 23-43 against southpaws this season.
Even better? This is a day game after a night game. In Miami.
Rich Hill and Trevor Rogers get to attack offenses that are susceptible to lefties, but is betting this matchup as simple as betting on pitching? Let’s take a look at what might be in store.
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Struggling New York Not Getting Help From Hill
Rich Hill has had an unceremonious start to his Mets career. In 10 innings (two starts), he has allowed seven earned runs and two home runs. At least 73% of balls put in play were in the air as well.
It doesn’t get much better when taking in the entire season. Hill has 29 strikeouts in 43 road innings compared to 67 in 62 1/3 innings at home. The 41-year-old has also allowed a opposing hitters to slug .462 in his road starts.
It is also interesting that Hill has his highest first-pitch strike and one of his lowest rates of pitches thrown in the zone of his career. Jump on Hill early or wait him out.
The Mets offense has been average against southpaws in road games despite its record. New York’s 94 wRC+ on the road against left-handers is 17th in baseball, with the offense boasting a top-10 walk rate. The problem is the Mets strike out the fifth most and have the second-highest Soft Hit percentage.
Strong Pitching Carrying Florida Offense
Trevor Rogers has transformed into an excellent pitcher, but the big difference is him executing on the mound. His 3.43 xERA is only 0.10 lower than his 2020 mark. His 2021 ERA is 2.42 compared to 6.11 in 2020.
If there is one complaint about Rogers, it’s similar to Hill. He’s dependent on fly-ball outs. Rogers has a sparkling 5.3% HR/FB ratio, a stark contrast from 20.8% in 2020. Needless to say, there’s some regression coming, especially with Rogers still walking 3.27 batter per nine innings.
Credit where it’s due, the 23-year-old has improved. One year after having two of three pitches with negative value, he now has all three in the positive.
Miami’s pitching has kept its offense afloat. The Marlins lack power, especially after trading Adam Duvall ahead of the deadline. The offense also misses the ball frequently, striking out 27.1% of the time against lefties at home. And it’s one of 10 below average based on wRC+ against lefties at home.
Oddly enough, the Marlins have enjoyed seeing the Mets, albeit in a small sample. The Marlins are 4-2 against New York and 3-1 in Miami. The offense averages 4.8 runs per game at home against the Mets. This is a significant change from last season when the Marlins were 1-3 at home against the Mets, averaging 3.3 runs in those games.
That matters even with roster changes, especially with New York adding significant offensive pieces before and during the 2021 season.
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Mets-Marlins Pick
Neither team is a major favorite/underdog respectively, which keeps the lines close enough to bet either way. Expected Win/Loss favors the Marlins despite failing to compete this season. If the game played out based on runs for and against, the Marlins would be 1.5 games better than the Mets.
That said, Miami is currently 9.5 games back of New York.
There are a fair amount of coin flips in this game. I will take the best value.
Pick: Marlins ML (+110 — bet to -110)
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