Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso #20 and Brandon Nimmo #9 of the New York Mets.
Mets vs. Giants Odds
| Mets Odds | +125 |
| Giants Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning and via BetMGM. | |
The San Francisco Giants took the second game of their three-game series against the New York Mets on Tuesday night by the score of 3-2 at Oracle Park.
The Giants were led by strong performances from Evan Longoria and Tommy La Stella, who combined to drive in all three of the teams runs on the night. Longoria had three hits in the game — including a home run — and La Stella added a two-run home run himself that proved to be the difference in the ball game.
The Mets, meanwhile, managed eight hits on the day, but finished just 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position and failed to convert when it counted. Pete Alonso had a two-run home run in the eighth inning that accounted for the Mets’ two runs in the loss.
With the Giants having a distinct advantage in the starting pitching department, is the home team the right play again in this one, or should we look elsewhere for our afternoon baseball action?
Mets Pitching Faces Tough Matchup
Tylor Megill will take the hill for the Mets in what will amount to his 11th start of the season. Megill has been impressive so far during his rookie campaign. Over 50 innings pitched, he’s compiled a 3.74 FIP and a strong 9.7 K/9 average. He’s also been relatively successful at limiting the long ball, allowing 1.3 HR/9 to opposing batters on the season.
That said, he has struggled over his last three starts. During that time, he’s pitched to a 6.75 ERA and has been a more frequent victim of the long ball, allowing three in his last 14 2/3 innings pitched. His 37.1% Hard Hit rate on the season, while not sky high, is also a bit concerning and something to monitor going forward.
Tonight’s matchup will not be an easy one for Megill; he’ll take on a Giants team that currently ranks fifth in all of baseball with a .332 wOBA on the season thus far against right-handed pitching. The Giants have been hot at the plate of late, averaging 5.4 runs per game over their past 10 outings.
When Megill exits, manager Luis Rojas will turn the ball over to a bullpen unit that has not exactly been lights out in 2021. In fact, they’ve been merely average so far this season, collectively pitching to a 4.23 FIP so far. That ranks just 15th amongst all big league teams.
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Will Regression Come for Anthony DeSclafani?
DeSclafani will get the nod for the home team on Wednesday afternoon. After struggling the last few seasons with the Cincinnati Reds, DeSclafani has been a welcomed surprise for the Giants this year.
He’s compiled a 3.73 FIP so far this season, which when compared to his 6.10 FIP from a year ago, represents a turnaround of epic proportions for the veteran right-hander.
DeSclafani has also been successful in increasing his strikeout rate this season from just a 6.7 K/9 average in 2020 to 8.4 K/9 this year, a sizable jump of nearly two strikeouts. He’s also decreased his home run rate to 1.1 HR/9, where it was as high as 1.9 HR/9 last year.
That said, there are a few signs that point to some negative regression in the near future. He’s allowing a 40.3% Hard Hit rate (per Stat Cast) and an 8.1% Barrel rate, both above league average. His 3.73 FIP, while strong, is also nearly a half run above his 3.29 ERA, another indicator that he’s been a bit lucky thus far.
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Mets-Giants Pick
While the Giants will once again have the edge at home with DeSclafani on the mound, there isn’t a ton of value on their current moneyline of -152. Instead, I’m going to focus on the total in this one.
Megill has struggled mightily for the Mets so far this season and will take on a Giants team that hits right-handed pitching particularly well. The advanced metrics also don’t suggest that we’ll see any kind of marked improvement anytime soon.
On the other side, DeSclafani has pitched well so far this year, but also is showing signs that some negative regression is in his near future. While the Mets offense hasn’t exactly been lights out this year, they’re still more than capable of putting up runs against a pitcher allowing the type of hard contact that DeSclafani has thus far.
The biggest risk here is the Giants bullpen, which has been quite effective of-late. Over the past 30 days, their 3.37 FIP ranks as the fourth best in all of baseball. For the Mets to hold up their end of the bargain, they’ll need to get to DeSclafani early in this one.
I like the over at the current mark of 8.5 runs, but given the recent dominance of the Giants relievers, I’ll look avoid this one if the line moves any higher than that.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-106)
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