Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Mets vs. Dodgers Odds
| Mets Odds | +220 |
| Dodgers Odds | -275 |
| Over/Under | 9 (+100/+100) |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. | |
The Los Angeles Dodgers snuck away with a 3-2 victory over the New York Mets in the second game of this series last night. Now, they look to pull off the home sweep and inch closer towards the National League West division lead.
Meanwhile, the Mets need to stave off being swept as the NL East race is slowly slipping away, along with New York’s playoff chances.
So, with veterans Rich Hill and Max Scherzer on the mound, where does the value lie in the finale?
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New York Has Too Many Holes to Fill
The story for the Mets is the same it’s been all season. Injuries have derailed this team, and without Jacob deGrom on the mound (likely for the rest of the season), the pitching can’t pick up the offense anymore.
Speaking of the offense, it’s been really bad. Over the past 30 days, the Mets have posted the fourth worst OPS (.656) and wOBA (.288) in MLB. But, that’s what happens when you don’t have Javier Baez or Francisco Lindor in the lineup.
Pete Alonso is doing alright this month — he’s working on a six-game hit streak and has smacked four extra-base hits during that time — posting a .857 OPS during August.
Clearly, however, it’s not enough to pick up the rest of the offense. Additionally, the bullpen has been below average (4.40 FIP in August, 19th in MLB), and today’s starter doesn’t give the Mets much hope either.
Starting Pitcher: Rich Hill (LHP)
Given the injuries across the Mets rotation — from deGrom to Jordan Yamamoto — Hill has done exactly what the Mets have asked of him.
He’s averaging between four and five innings per start with an ERA under 5.00. In short, he gives the Mets a chance to win, which is why they are 3-2 in his starts.
But we can’t pretend that Hill has pitched well. In his five starts with New York, Hill pairs his ERA with a 6.17 xFIP, a 27.5% ground ball rate and just 5.82 strikeouts per nine innings. The southpaw throws a fastball that travels just 88 mph on average, but allows an average exit velocity over 92 mph.
Because of that, his fastball has been getting lit up, as batters are slugging .549 on the pitch. However, Hill’s curveball has been a bright spot, posting a -7 run value while holding opponents to just a .202 BA and a .282 SLG.
Dodgers Firing on All Cylinders in August
The Dodgers are now within two games of the NL West lead.
L.A. has the No. 1 bullpen (2.69 FIP), the No. 4 offense (119 wRC+), and Scherzer as its No. 1 pitcher so far in August; that formula is almost impossible to stop.
This explains why the Dodgers have ripped off eight straight wins and are now 14-3 this month. They appear ready to take the division back and stroll into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed.
It might be difficult to find value on them in this game, though, given the Dodgers are close to -275 on the moneyline. But that seems fairly priced with one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound.
Starting pitcher: Max Scherzer (RHP)
Scherzer’s been having one of the best seasons of his storied career — and Dodgers fans have been thrilled with his West Coast performance so far.
The Dodgers have won in each of Scherzer’s first three starts. Meanwhile, Scherzer has allowed just four earned in 16 1/3 innings pitched (2.20 ERA) while posting a .92 WHIP and striking out 23. Most recently, he pitched six full innings against these Mets, striking out seven in a whopping 14-4 Dodgers win.
Scherzer might be the reason the Dodgers win the World Series this season. On any other team, Scherzer would be the sole Ace of the staff. In L.A., he’s paired with Walker Buehler, who currently has the third shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young, creating a one-two punch that should be unstoppable come October.
Scherzer continues to throw a fastball about half the time, but it’s his secondary pitches that have been dominating hitters this season:
| Batting Average | wOBA | |
| Slider | .133 | .191 |
| Curveball | .105 | .151 |
Scherzer throws the slider about 20% of the time and the curveball about 15% of the time. His top three pitches have produced a combined -26 run value this season.
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Mets-Dodgers Pick
While the Mets’ offense and Dodger pitching indicates a lower-scoring game, there are a few things pushing me towards the over in this spot.
First: Our Action PRO signals show that sharp money has moved the over 8.5 number.
Second: We have an over leaning umpire on the mound tonight. Marvin Hudson is 265-243 lifetime to the over for +26.2 units of profit.
Third: The wind is blowing straight out of Dodger stadium tonight at close to 9 mph.
Add those three things together, and i’m willing to take a shot on the over 9 number. Especially when DraftKings is offering it to us at even money.
Pick: Over 9 (+100)
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