Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | -115 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YouTube |
| Odds as of Wednesday via BetMGM. | |
In the last game of the series, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Mets. In the first two games the Mets were heavily favored, and for Wednesday afternoon’s game the Mets are slightly favored again.
Wednesday’s game is different for several reasons. It will be broadcast for free on YouTube, so not only can you watch Action Network content, prank videos, and 90’s hip hop videos, but you can also watch baseball. Most importantly Wednesday’s game is different because while the Mets relied on starting pitchers Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman in the first two games, they are relying on a less-reliable starter in David Peterson. The Diamondbacks are countering with Madison Bumgarner on the mound.
The question for Wednesday’s matinee, is if the upstart David Peterson is better than a struggling veteran in Madison Bumgarner.
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Don’t Be Fooled by David Peterson’s ERA for Mets
Even though Mets starting pitcher David Peterson is in his second season, he is a hard pitcher to analyze. As a 25-year-old with only 93 2/3 career innings, bettors do not know what they are going to get. Last year Peterson had a 6-2 record with a 3.44 ERA. This season Peterson has a 1-4 record with a 4.91 ERA.
On the surface Peterson has performed worse this season, however his xFIP of 3.39 this year is much lower than his 5.11 xFIP from last season. While Peterson appears to have regressed, he has pitched in a way where he should be allowing fewer runs than he is currently allowing.
Backing up Peterson is a Mets lineup that has been woeful this season. Currently New York’s lineup is averaging only 3.63 runs per game which is the third worst in the league. However, when you delve deeper into the “nerd stats”, the Mets have been unlucky this season.
New York’s hitters collectively have a wRC+ of 93 meaning they should be scoring 7% fewer runs than the league average. While this is not good, it means that the Mets should be scoring 4.05 runs per game.
Even though the Mets have several key offensive players out of the lineup with injuries, they still have SS Francisco Lindor, OF Dominic Smith and 1B Jonathan Villar. On a typical night in a neutral ballpark, my model projects this Mets lineup to average 3.74 runs per game.
Madison Bumgarner has been Disappointing for Diamondbacks
Since Madison Bumgarner joined the Arizona Diamondbacks last season in free agency, he has been an unmitigated disaster. With the San Francisco Giants from 2009-2019, Bumgarner could be relied upon to have an ERA between 2.77 and 3.9 in all of his full seasons. However, with the D-Backs Bumgarner has been a trainwreck.
Last season Bumgarner had a 1-4 record with a 6.48 ERA, a 5.85 xFIP and a -0.5 WAR. This year despite throwing a “no-hitter” (not according to MLB since it was for only seven innings), Bumgarner has a 4-5 record with a 5.15 ERA, and a 4.58 xFIP. He might be able to return to his old form, but in 20 starts with the Diamondbacks, it is hard to see how his bad performance is a fluke.
Backing up Bumgarner is a Diamondbacks lineup that has been quietly okay. The average MLB team is scoring 4.33 runs per game, and Arizona has been scoring 4.35 runs per game. The D-Backs lineup is built around several average players and catcher Carson Kelly is who has quietly put together a strong season. Kelly has a .301 batting average, .437 on-base percentage, six home runs and 21 RBI’s in only 35 games. With a wRC+ of 159, Kelly is creating 59% more runs than the average MLB position player this season.
Mets-Diamondbacks Pick
As a bettor, I do not trust either Madison Bumgarner or David Peterson. That is why my model believes that both teams are a bad bet. However, there is value in the run total over if you look around for the right price.
Most books are offering the total at 8.5 runs with -110 juice on both sides. At that price, there is barely any value on the over. However, BetMGM is offering an alternate run total on over 8 runs at only -120 odds (54.5% breakeven odds). After simulating the game 10,000 times in my model, more than eight runs were scored in 58.2% of my simulations.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (-120) would play up to -125
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