Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish.
Mariners vs. Padres Odds
| Mariners Odds | +230 |
| Padres Odds | -260 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Sunday morning and via William Hill. | |
The Padres are red hot and enter Sunday looking for a sweep of the Mariners, who have had their struggles of late. A lackluster Seattle offense will hope that an ever-improving righty can rescue them, but he will not only have to navigate a difficult lineup but also out-duel one of the best pitchers in the game right now.
Is there value on the total here in what could be a pitchers’ duel? Let’s take a look at the numbers and find out.
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Mariners Lineup Regresses
This Mariners offense, once the talk of the league, has fallen on hard times. The Kyles (Seager and Lewis) have cooled off, Ty France and Dylan Moore are on the Injured List, and top prospect Jarred Kelenic has yet to provide the spark that Seattle had hoped he would.
Just as it’s unfair to criticize the young Kelenic, though, it might be unfair to criticize this entire lineup in general. After all, expectations weren’t high for Seattle, and a hot start shouldn’t change the fact that this is still a young team that’s got a lot of room to grow.
Speaking of, Justin Dunn will get the ball today for Seattle, and he’s starting to turn into a good pitcher. He’s now lowered his ERA to 3.63 and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start this year. He struck out nine Tigers in his last outing, and his punchout rate is beginning to creep up over the league average, even though he’s still having a tough time with walks.
When Dunn’s been able to locate, he hasn’t been hit very hard, so keeping San Diego off the basepaths will be a key here. He’s proven himself against some tough lineups this year, like the White Sox, Astros, Dodgers and Red Sox, so why can’t he handle the Padres?
No Team is Hotter than the Padres
At this point last week, we were sitting in awe at the Padres heading into a Sunday night game against the Cardinals. Almost their entire core on offense was on the COVID list, yet they continued to win games on the back of an incredible performance by what was effectively their Triple-A team.
Well, nothing has changed. This team is still dominating, coming in on an eight-game winning streak and as the winners of 11 games in 12 tries. Only one team can lay claim to having a hotter offense over the past two weeks (the Houston Astros) than San Diego, who’s posted a 137 wRC+ over the span.
What’s most impressive is the way that this team has done it, too, hitting just 13 home runs and surviving off of walks, few strikeouts and stealing a league-best 12 bases over the last 14 days. Small ball is working here for Slam Diego, who might want to start think about re-branding themselves.
Then, there’s Yu Darvish, who will start Sunday as the Padres go for the sweep. The righty has been unbelievable, pitching to a 1.81 ERA and an elite 32.2% strikeout rate. After his stint in Chicago was a bit of a mixed bag, Darvish appears to be settling into life as a Padre quite well, and might be as dominant as ever.
Mariners-Padres Pick
With the way Darvish is pitching, it’s hard to see a struggling Mariners offense getting much done here, but there’s no value in laying down all this money to back the Friars. Instead, I’m looking to the total.
I believe in the young Dunn, who’s seemed to get better with every start and should come out on his game here considering the strength of schedule he’s had. The Padres’ small ball has been fun, and I think it’ll be an effective way for them to win lots of games this year, but I don’t think it’ll lead them to a crooked number in this one against a pitcher who does a good job of limiting quality contact and contact in general. This total is low for a reason, and I’m going under.
Pick: Under 7 (-105)
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