Manchester City vs. West Brom Tuesday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 15)

Manchester City vs. West Brom Odds

Welcome to one of the biggest mismatches on the Premier League calendar.

Manchester City, fresh off a goalless draw at Old Trafford on Saturday, will look to get back on track against West Brom.

After starting the season on the wrong foot, the Cityzens will need to put together a major run to make up ground in the Premier League. City are currently in ninth place and 12 points off the pace. This is perhaps the easiest match on their schedule, so Manchester City needs to make sure they win this one comfortably.

West Brom could end up as one of the worst Premier League sides in the last two decades. The Baggies are currently in the relegation zone and have lost four of their last five matches.

Manchester City

The most surprising part of Man City’s start to the season is that their usually-prolific offense has been stymied. City are only averaging 1.75 expected goals per match, which is well below where they were in 2019/20 when they finished with an average of 2.69 xG/match.

City’s attack has started to show signs of life lately, generating 2.13 xG/90 in their last four Premier League matches. One of those matches saw them hang 3.27 xG on Fulham, another side fighting relegation.

Because of their sluggish start, City don’t have the luxury of taking anybody lightly so I expect Tuesday’s encounter with West Brom will have manager Pep Guardiola’s full attention.

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West Brom

West Brom’s offense is off to one of the worst starts in Premier League history, according to xG models. The Baggies are creating just 0.61 xG per match through their first 12 contests and have created over 1.0 xG in just two of their first 12 matches.

If things weren’t bad enough on the offensive end, West Brom also boast the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing 2.00 xG per match. In addition, our Action Network colleague Anthony Dabbundo pointed out to me that the Baggies have been one of the worst second-half teams in the Premier League.

The table below (via Understat) shows that the Baggies have an unheard of -12.81 xG differential in the second half. So, even if they’re able to hold Manchester City in the first half, don’t be surprised if things unravel after halftime.

Projections and Pick

This should be an easy victory for Manchester City on Tuesday. They need to go on a run to get back into the top four, so I think we’ll Pep Guardiola’s men pour it on West Brom in a blowout.

Since I think this game can get out of hand, I’m happy to take a shot on a bigger price and like the value on Manchester City -3.5 at +185.

Pick: Manchester City -3.5 (+185)