Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jamal Murray
Kings vs. Nuggets Odds
| Kings Odds | +7.5 |
| Nuggets Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 226 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS-SE |
With seven and a half points separating them in the betting market, the Kings and Nuggets may not be expected to provide the most entertaining contribution to tonight’s 13-game NBA opening slate. But at the very least, we know it’ll provide another opportunity for bettors welcoming back the league — and apparently a pretty valuable one.
According to our projections, the spread, even after an adjustment, is a bit off. And sharp bettors agree.
Let’s take a look at the side offering value.
Note: Odds, data as of 1 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Kings vs. Nuggets Pick
Despite opening as an 8- to 8.5-point favorite, Denver has come down to -7.5 across most of the market … and there’s plenty of reason for that.
Sharp Action
The Nuggets haven’t had any trouble generating a backing from the betting public, as they’ve landed 62% of the bets on this spread. That, paired with the line movement away from them, should serve as the first indication of sharps betting the other side.
Confirming that to be the case, three Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered on the Kings, revealing three separate instances of market responses to sharp action.
Sharp action edge: Kings
Big Money
As if there needed to be more evidence of pros betting the Kings, their 38% backing has accounted for almost all of the spread money that’s been bet so far.
Of course, that creates a monetary liability for sportsbooks, but perhaps more importantly (for the sake of reading the betting market), it reveals how big bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are playing this game.
Big Money edge: Kings
PRO Systems
The bet-vs.-money discrepancy has been so significant, in fact, that the Kings are currently a match for our NBA Tickets vs. Money PRO System, which has returned a 55% win rate against the spread on a sample of more than 600 games.
PRO Systems edge: Kings
Model Projections
And lastly, as mentioned, our projection for this game is still a bit off from the current spread. Our NBA model pegs the true line at Denver -6.1, giving a bit of room for remaining value on the Kings even at the current number.
Model Projections edge: Kings