Kentucky vs. Florida Odds
| Kentucky Odds | +4.5 | |
| Florida Odds | -4.5 | |
| Moneyline | +172 / -205 | |
| Over/Under | 140.5 | |
| Time | TV | Saturday, 5 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds as of Friday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks. | ||
After tumultuous start to the season, Kentucky is starting to turn the tides and will go for its third straight win on Saturday at Florida.
The Wildcats have been dead and buried after losing six straight games in the beginning of the season. However, John Calipari’s squad is starting to play much better and get healthier. They even will get Kieon Brooks Jr. back this weekend, a former five star recruit who has yet to play for Kentucky this season.
I’M BACK😁
Grateful to be back on the floor with my brothers.
Our team doctors have medically cleared me to play. 🙏🏾 pic.twitter.com/UFaR07a0fH
— Keion Brooks Jr. (@KeionB_12) January 7, 2021
A win over their rival Florida would do wonders for Kentucky’s confidence and put them right back in the SEC title race.
Florida not having Keyontae Johnson on the floor is starting to take its toll. They were blown out on Tuesday by Alabama, who didn’t even have one of its best players on the floor in Jahvon Quinerly. They’ll need to put together a much better performance on Saturday if they are going to hold off Kentucky.
When Kentucky Has the Ball
The Wildcats’ issues offensively during their six game losing streak were because they shot the ball horrendously. In fact, during their skid, Kentucky only shot 25% from beyond the arc. In their last two games they’ve been much improved from deep, shooting a blistering 47%. However, Kentucky rarely relies on their points coming from behind the arc.
The Wildcats only shoot three pointers on 28.8% of their field goal attempts, which is one of the lowest rates in the country. Over 57% of their points come from inside the arc, which is the 28th highest rate in the country.
Now, it’s all well and good to rely on getting the ball down low, if you shoot a high percentage. That is not the case for Calipari’s squad, as they are shooting only 46.2% from two point range.
Ever since they began SEC play, Florida has desperately struggled on the defensive end of the floor, allowing 1.08 points per possession through their first three games.
Florida has a ton of length and athleticism to defend the paint at an elite level. They are top 10 in block rate, so getting inside the paint on the Gators is almost a death sentence. Where they’ve struggled is defending the three ball. The Gators are allowing almost 40% from behind the arc in conference play and 36.6% for the season.
One other area Florida is struggling with on defense is fouling. Opponents are getting to the free throw line at a 42% clip, which is one of the worst rates in the country. So, if the Wildcats can get the Gators in foul trouble, they may just have a shot at pulling off the upset.
When Florida Has the Ball
Florida has changed the tempo from extremely slow, to up tempo, which has had quite literally zero effect on their offense from an efficiency standpoint.
The Gators can beat you in a number of different ways because they do everything well on offense. They are top 60 in effective field goal percentage, two point percentage, and three point percentage, per KenPom. They also use their length and athleticism on the offensive end of the floor to grab offensive rebounds at over 30% rate, which will come in handy on Saturday, since Kentucky is a below average defensive rebounding team.
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Kentucky, much like Florida, is going to win a lot of its games this season based purely on size and athleticism. The Wildcats are the fifth-tallest team in the country and they use that height to effectively deny opponents at the rim, as they have the fourth-highest block rate in the country.
Kentucky is solid in every other area on defense except for two, they struggle turning opponents over and they’re giving up way too many offensive rebounds. Florida is one of the most athletic teams Kentucky has seen all year, so the Cats need to be disciplined in their box outs on Saturday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think we’re seeing the start of a run from Kentucky, and you can still buy somewhat low. The Wildcats are too talented to be 3-6 through their first nine games. With how bad Florida’s three-point defense is, Kentucky should get a ton of open looks and if they shoot like they did in their last two games, they can pull off the upset in Gainesville.
I only have Florida projected as a -2.27 favorite on Saturday, so I think there is value in the Wildcats at +4.5 (-108) at DraftKings.
Pick: Kentucky +4.5 or better
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