Kansas vs. TCU Odds

Kansas looks to avoid a second straight Big 12 loss on Tuesday when it travels to Fort Worth to battle TCU.

You could have built a house with all of the bricks Kansas threw up against Texas on Saturday. The Jayhawks finished the game shooting 30% from the field and 13% from 3-point range.

The loss dropped Kansas out of the top five in the AP Poll and raised a lot of question marks in Lawrence.

To make matters worse, freshman guard Bryce Thompson is out, while its best player and point guard, Marcus Garrett, is questionable. Can the Jayhawks overcome a substantial amount of adversity and escape Fort Worth with a win?

The Horned Frogs have rebounded from home losses to Oklahoma and Providence earlier in the season, as they are currently on a five-game win streak.

Jamie Dixon’s squad has been playing solid basketball at both ends of the floor and is poised to upset Kansas for the first time since 2017. Can TCU take advantage of a shorthanded Kansas team and pull off the upset at Schollmaier Arena?

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When Kansas has the ball

The 3-of-23 mark from 3-point range was a bit uncharacteristic for the Jayhawks on Saturday because they were shooting over 37% from deep when they entered the game.

However, the big concern is how they are shooting the ball from inside the arc. Kansas is shooting a measly 45% from 2-point range, which is a major decrease from last season when it shot 54.9%.

The offense is currently running through freshman Jalen Wilson, who has taken over scoring duties for the Jayhawks. He’s their best shooter and is averaging 15.1 points along with almost eight rebounds this season.

With Thompson and potentially Garrett out, he will need to handle the scoring load once again on Tuesday.

TCU has been incredibly disciplined on the defensive side of the ball, as it holds one of the lowest foul rates in the Big 12.

It’s also are doing a fantastic job at defending opposing 3-point shots, allowing teams to hit at only a 28.2% clip. So, it looks like Kansas could potentially see a carryover from Saturday’s performance.

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When TCU has the ball

The strength of the TCU offense is in their backcourt with RJ Nembhard and Mike Miles, who account for 55% of their offense. Those two are matchup problems for most teams and will be for Kansas, with potentially two of its top three guards out for the game.

Dixon made a huge switch last season, slowing down the tempo to try and create more efficiency in the half-court. TCU went from 107th in tempo in 2018 to 318th in 2019, but its offensive efficiency went way down with the slower style of play.

This season, Dixon has found a happy medium, playing a little bit faster but nowhere near his team’s 2018 pace. The switch has paid off, as TCU’s offensive efficiency has gone up almost fifty spots in the KenPom rankings from 2019.

If Kansas is going to win the Big 12 this season, it’s going to have to do it with defense.

However, if Garrett’s out, that’s going to be a huge loss for the Jayhawks’ defense. Garrett is the best perimeter defender in the Big 12 and maybe even in the country.

Kansas really struggled to defend the 3-point shot, allowing over 50% from deep. If it can’t hold Nembhard and Miles in check from deep — they shoot 41% combined from 3 — then Kansas may just be on upset watch again Tuesday.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Even if Garrett is able to go on Tuesday, it sounds like he isn’t going to be 100%.

TCU’s guard play should be able to dominate this game with Kansas being shorthanded and should also keep the Jayhawks in check at the defensive end of the floor.

I have the Jayhawks projected as only -3.41 favorites even with Garrett in the lineup, so I’ll take the Horned Frogs at +5.5.

Pick: TCU +5.5 | Play down to +5

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