Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Pedro Munhoz.
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz Odds
| Aldo Odds | -115 |
| Munhoz Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-220 / +170) |
| Venue | Toyota Center |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN PPV |
| Odds as of Friday night and via DraftKings. | |
Former featherweight legend Jose Aldo looks to keep getting back on track at 135 pounds on Saturday night when he faces Pedro Munhoz at UFC 265.
Aldo’s career was on a downward trajectory before his win last December over Marlon “Chito” Vera. The former champion at 145 pounds was 25-1 entering his December 2015 matchup with Conor McGregor that infamously lasted just 13 seconds. That started a trend of six losses in nine fights.
Despite that skid, Aldo fought for the bantamweight title in his second fight at 135 pounds. He was easily taken care of by Petr Yan back at UFC 251 in July 2020, though.
Munhoz enters this fight ranked No. 9 in the UFC bantamweight division. After losing to Aljamain Sterling and Frankie Edgar, he bounced back with a Fight of the Night performance and win over Jimmie Rivera back in February. He has a couple impressive wins on his UFC resume, most notably Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt.
Let’s break down this important matchup for two veterans of the octagon.
Tale of the Tape
| Aldo | Munhoz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-7 | 19-5 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:43 | 10:16 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’6″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70″ | 65″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/9/86 | 9/7/86 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.45 | 5.60 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.52 | 5.87 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| TD Acc | 56% | 21% |
| TD Def | 91% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Saturday’s co-main event is an exciting All-Brazilian affair between top-10 contenders in the UFC’s deepest division. Aldo initially opened as a slightly bigger favorite (-140), but the number has crept towards a pick’em as of Friday afternoon.
This is Aldo’s fourth fight since moving down to bantamweight, and the third where he’ll have a significant reach advantage (5 inches) against his opponent, which should help him in the boxing exchanges.
Aldo also does an excellent job of checking leg kicks, which is a big part of Munhoz’s game (he landed 126 of 146 attempts (86%) in his last three fights), so he has the tools to neutralize his opponent on the feet.
Aldo also has a vicious low kick game of his own, but he has trended more towards pure boxing later in his career as injuries have mounted up.
Even though these two fighters are the same age, I would give the edge to Munhoz in both cardio and durability.
Munhoz tends to increase his output the longer his fights go, while Aldo has shown signs of decline in the third round, both near the end of his featherweight tenure and at the start of his bantamweight campaign.
In his last fight against Vera, Aldo was fading hard in the third round (trailed 24-7 on strikes landed) but still won the round on all three scorecards by taking Vera’s back and controlling 4:53 of the frame.
Munhoz (80% takedown defense) and Aldo (91%) are both adept at keeping their fights on the feet, and I doubt this one does hit the mat at all. Even if it does get there, I would probably favor Munhoz in any grappling exchanges.
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Aldo vs. Munhoz Pick
I don’t show value on either the moneyline or the total for this fight, but I see slight value on Munhoz to win by Decision (projected +190, listed +225). I also like the prop on Munhoz to win in Round 3 or by Decision (listed +180) since I suspect that the highest likelihood of a finish in this bout stems from him walking down a tiring Aldo late.
Lastly, I would target Munhoz as a live bet after Round 1. Aldo’s best chance of winning minutes here should come in the first round, and Munhoz should start to take over the longer the fight goes – especially if he can connect with his leg kicks.
The Pick:
- Pedro Munhoz wins in Round 3 or By Decision (+180, 0.25u)
- Pedro Munhoz wins by Decision (+225, 0.25u)
- Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1
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