Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Jets head coach Robert Saleh (left) hugs quarterback Zach Wilson (right).
Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, simulated the 2021 NFL season 10,000 times to project win totals and playoff odds for every AFC East team in order to identify early value on their futures.
Here’s how he sees things shaking out for the New York Jets.
Jets 2022 Super Bowl Odds
With a rebuild officially under way — equipped with a new coach and quarterback — the Jets sit at +15000 for a Super Bowl LIV win as of July 30.
| Super Bowl Odds at DraftKings | +15000 |
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Jets Win Total Projections
| Average Wins | 6.2 |
| Make vs. Miss Playoffs | 6.9% vs. 93.1% |
| Win Total at DraftKings | Over 6 (+100) / Under 6 (-120) |
Jets Betting Predictions
The needle is pointing up for the Jets organization long term. Adam Gase is out and Robert Saleh is in. The coaching change will have an immediate positive impact on the team’s culture and decision making. However, I think this team is still a year or two away from ending its decade-long playoff drought. Zach Wilson comes into Year 1 oozing with talent but was a late bloomer in college and may need a year or two to adjust to the NFL.
After ranking 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass last season, the Jets secondary remains a huge concern. It’s the main reason why I’m in line with sportsbooks and have the Jets with the third-lowest win total (six).
The Jets will be a team to look out for in 2022 as they will have the third-most cap space entering next offseason, which should allow them to finish their rebuild as Wilson plays out his rookie contract. Therefore, I expect them to be a serious playoff contender as soon as next season.
I’m passing on their win total.
2021 AFC East Projections
Like I said, 2021 may not be the Jets’ year as they are looking at last place in the AFC East. But keep an eye on them in 2022 once the rebuild starts to settle.
| Team | 1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
4th Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 63.1% | 23.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.7% | 33.8% | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| New England Patriots | 15.5% | 35.2% | 37.5% | 11.8% |
| New York Jets | 1.5% | 7.7% | 19.3% | 71.5% |