Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Ciryl Gane.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Cyril Gane Odds
| Rozenstruik odds | +210 |
| Gane odds | -265 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-230 / +165) |
| Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Time | Approx. 10:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings | |
For the second weekend in a row a UFC Fight Night card is being headlined by two heavyweights with Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane set to face off in the main event of this Saturday’s card.
Rozenstruik enters this fight with a 5-1 record in the UFC, while Gane is undefeated in his fights under the promotion at 4-0. This fight has the highest listed odds to end inside the distance at -286, which means we’re almost assuredly going to see some fireworks.
I’ll break down the matchup and betting odds below, including where I see value between these two flamethrowers, but you can find my full breakdown of Saturday’s card here.
Tale of the Tape
| Rozenstruik | Gane | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:46 | 10:23 |
| Height | 6’4″ | 6’4″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 242 lbs. | 245 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78″ | 81″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/17/88 | 4/12/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.04 | 5.61 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| SS Defense | 36% | 73% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 60% |
| TD Def | 75% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.7 |
I don’t have a particularly high opinion of Rozenstruik as an MMA fighter. He is a talented kickboxer who owns the rare death touch — the god-given ability possessed by only a few other fighters (Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis) to put people out with glancing blows at a moment’s notice.
In his last fight against the chinny Junior Dos Santos, Rozenstruik lost the first round on two of the three scorecards before recording a knockout late in the second round.
Before that win, he was put down almost immediately by Francis Ngannou for his first career loss:
Francis Ngannou kills Jairzinho Rozenstruik in 20 seconds. 🗣🗣
He is insane Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic don’t want that smoke. 😂😂#UFC249
— WhatsUpMMA (@WhatsUp_MMA) May 10, 2020
And the fight before that, he was thoroughly outworked by Alistair Overeem for the majority of a main event (down 40-36, 39-37, and 39-37 on the scorecards) before exploding Reem’s lip late in the final seconds of the fight, to steal a victory.
Rozenstruik’s defensive metrics (36% striking defense) are laughably bad and especially compared to an opponent like Gane (73%), who is at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum.
Moreover, Gane’s grappling (1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes, 60% accuracy) could give Rozenstruik some problems. Overeem only secured two of his 10 takedown attempts against “Bigi Boy,” but he spent more than eight minutes in control of the grappling exchanges and landed 19-of-20 ground strikes; 20% of his output for the fight.
Gane is a much better athlete, and his more well-rounded game poses major problems for a natural kickboxer.
Rozenstruik vs. Gane Betting Pick
Rozenstruik seems to be knockout or bust here, but the market has started to side with the underdog, pushing him down from +250 (implied 28.6%) to +175 (implied 36.3%) as of writing.
I do show value on betting the main event to end inside the distance (listed -250), compared to my projection (-576), and I like that bet to -300 at a 10% edge.
But I prefer Gane’s odds to win inside the distance (projected -131) down to roughly -107.
This could be a slow-paced staring contest, but a quick submission from Gane or anytime knockout from Rozenstruik is very much in play.
The Pick: Ciryl Gane wins Inside the Distance (+100)
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