Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Saints Head Coach Sean Payton
Jaguars vs. Saints NFL Odds
| Jaguars Odds | +4 |
| Saints Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 |
| Date | Monday, Aug. 23 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
*NFL odds updated as of Monday at 9 a.m. ET
Contrarian betting is often associated with a strategy called “betting against the public,” but there is so much more involved than simply pivoting away from the masses.
For example, whenever a betting strategy or narrative becomes mainstream, it often becomes overvalued by recreational bettors, which, in turn, provides an edge for those willing to bet against whichever storyline is dominating at that time.
A prime example of this is how much attention NFL preseason unders have gotten so far this year.
Back on Aug. 13, I published a piece detailing just how profitable (and consistent) preseason unders have been since 2004, so it shouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them winning again this year.
However, as is often the case, mainstream and social media take hold of something like this and hammer it into the ground.
Oddsmakers take note as well and will react by shading lines since they know casual bettors will overvalue this narrative and blindly bet the under trend no matter the teams (and starters) playing or the actual totals.
This is music to the ears of experienced bettors who will gladly buy back shaded lines for free value, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in Monday night’s Jaguars vs. Saints NFL preseason matchup.
Jaguars vs. Saints NFL Pick
The Jaguars vs. Saints over/under opened at 37.5 at sportsbooks like DraftKings, PointsBet and BetMGM, but now has pushed to 39.5 across the market.
As I mentioned above, unders have dominated so far this preseason, but the market’s sharpest bettors have hit the Jaguars vs. Saints over six times per Action Labs’ Bet Signals.
And from a high level, this makes sense.
The Saints are still trying to settle the Taysom Hill vs. Jameis Winston battle, so it’s reasonable to expect both players getting time in tonight’s matchup.
And from a Jaguars perspective, even though Urban Meyer still hasn’t committed to Trevor Lawrence as Jacksonville’s Week 1 starter, the rookie likely needs reps with the season opener just a few weeks away.
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