Indiana vs. Purdue Odds

We’ve made it to the end of the Big Ten regular season. This is the final game before the Big Ten Tournament for both the Indiana Hoosiers and the Purdue Boilermakers.

For Purdue, that’s great! Matt Painter and company are finding their stride at just the right time. The Boilermakers are a dangerous team heading into March.

For Indiana, not so much. Archie Miller and the Hoosiers are actively playing themselves out of a tournament bid. At the time of this writing, Shelby’s BracketWag has Indiana in the “On Life Support (but probably dead)” section. Yikes.

Anyway, let’s talk about Indiana’s struggles, Purdue’s recent success and where the value lies in this matchup.

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Indiana’s Struggles

For the majority of the season, we expected the Hoosiers to make the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid. On Feb. 10, Indiana was 11-8 overall, 6-6 in conference play and had two huge wins over Iowa. Since then, Indiana is 1-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

It’s unfortunate, because sophomore forward Trayce Jackson-Davis has been playing All-Big Ten basketball. He’s averaging 19.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while shooting better than 50% from the field. Additionally, he’s been a superb interior defender, averaging 1.4 blocks per game.

While Jackson-Davis is one of the best two-way forwards in the nation, Indiana’s overall team defense has been pathetic. The Hoosiers are now 10th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 11th in defensive effective field goal percentage.

The Hoosier guard play has also been an issue. Both of Miller’s starting guards are shooting less than 40% from the field this season, and the two are combining to average just 5.3 assists per game.

The one thing Indiana does well is draw fouls. On the back of Jackson-Davis’s 8.6 FTAs per game, Indiana leads the Big Ten in FTAs per game and free-throw rate. Unfortunately, the rest of the offense is too inefficient, as Indiana is ninth in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage.

Indiana is now 12-13 overall and 7-11 in conference play. In a loaded Big Ten, the Hoosiers haven’t taken advantage of its opportunities. It’s a pathetic 2-10 in Quad 1 games with both wins coming against Iowa.

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Purdue’s Surge

The Boilermakers, who were 44th in the preseason coaches poll, have worked their way to No. 23 in the AP Poll. It’s been an impressive back-half of the season for Painter’s team.

Purdue is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games, and its 10-3 SU since Jan. 8. It’s 6-6 in Quad 1 opportunities this season, with two wins over Ohio State, and 11-2 in Quad 2-through-4 opportunities.

The Boilermakers have played themselves from 7-5 overall and 2-3 in conference play to 17-8 and 12-6, respectively.

Purdue has a great young core. Painter plays a lot of freshmen, like Brandon Newman, Zach Edey and Jaden Ivey, all of whom are smart and talented ballplayers.

However, Purdue also mixes in upper-class veterans. Eric Hunter and Sasha Stefanovic come to mind, but the MVP of the Boilermakers is Trevion Williams.

The Chicago native is averaging 15.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game on better than 50% shooting. The scoring efficiency and volume is super impressive when you consider his usage. Williams has the second-highest possession percentage (35%) and shot percentage (36.5%) of any player in college basketball.

Williams is literally the Boilermakers’ offense, which is especially impressive when you consider that Purdue is 18th in the country in offensive efficiency. It’s why KenPom has Williams on the All-Big Ten team and seventh in the Player of the Year rankings.

At the moment, Shelby’s BracketWag has Purdue as a four seed and Andy Katz recently mentioned Purdue is a great NCAA Tournament sleeper. The Boilermakers are getting it together at the right time, combine a good defense with a good offense and have a top-10 player as their leader.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

In the last 10 games between Indiana and Purdue, Purdue is 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS. Additionally, Purdue is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three against Indiana and 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three against Indiana at home.

Basically, Purdue has dominated Indiana in the recent past. This year, Purdue is playing great while Indiana is playing terribly.

It’s simple—I’m laying the points with Purdue at home. While Jackson-Davis can keep Indiana close for a while, I think Purdue ultimately blows them out.

I’m predicting a double-digit Purdue victory in West Lafayette, and therefore would play Purdue up to -9.5.

Pick: Purdue -7.5 (Play up to -9.5)

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