Illinois vs. Ohio State College Basketball Odds & Pick: Offenses Will Shine in Columbus With or Without Dosunmu (March 6)

Michael Allio/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Ahrens (10) passes the ball around Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andre Curbelo (5)

Illinois vs. Ohio State Odds


Illinois Odds +2
Ohio State Odds -2
Moneyline +110/-139
Over/Under 150.5
Time | TV Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | ESPN
Odds as of Friday night and via PointsBet.

Illinois heads to Columbus looking for their third straight road win over a ranked opponent.

The Illini had maybe the most impressive win of the season on Tuesday, blowing out Michigan 76-53, without their best player Ayo Dosunmu. Illinois is locked into the two seed for the Big Ten tournament, but another win versus a top-10 team could lock up a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. It’s unclear if Dosunmu will return for Saturday’s contest, but Illinois has showed that they are just fine without him.

Ohio State is limping to the finish line, as they’ve lost three straight Big Ten games, including a 57-point performance at home against Iowa last Sunday. The Buckeyes are currently the five seed in the Big Ten but are only a half game behind Purdue for fourth place, which would give them a first round bye in the Big Ten tournament next week.

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When Illinois has the ball

I’ll be honest, I thought Illinois was screwed when Dosnumu was ruled out for their last two games against Wisconsin and Michigan. However, the complete opposite effect has happened, as some of the Illini’s role players have stepped up in his absence. Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo have carried Illinois’ backcourt, combining for 62 points in their last two games. The real reason Illinois hasn’t missed a beat is because of their big man Kofi Cockburn.

Cockburn has been an absolute monster down low all season long, averaging 17.5 points and 9.8 rebounds. He went 7-of-7 from the field in the last meeting against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes don’t have the size to match up with him, as their tallest guy is 6-8. Even if Dosunmu is ruled out again, I expect Illinois to feed him early and often.

Ohio State defensively has struggled to defend the paint all season long, allowing over 50% from two-point range and over 61% on shot attempts at the rim. I have a hard time seeing how they are going to stop Cockburn and the rest of Illinois supporting cast inside.

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When Ohio State has the ball

The Buckeyes have one of the best offenses in the country, ranking fourth in terms of efficiency, per KenPom. The reason they are so efficient is because the Buckeyes do every thing well. Ohio State ranks inside the top three in the conference in two-point and three-point percentage, so they can beat their opponents from anywhere. Their offense torched Illinois in the first meeting, averaging 1.23 points per possession and shooting over 50% from three-point range.

Ohio State attempts 3-pointers on over 40% of its field goal attempts converting almost 37% of them. The good news for the Buckeyes is that’s how you beat this Illinois defense. The Illini are 10th in the Big Ten in three-point percentage allowed, so if the Buckeyes can hit a high percentage from deep, they have a good chance at beating the Illini.

Illinois is one of the best defenses in the Big Ten, allowing 0.96 points per possession and are almost impossible to score on in the paint. Michigan saw that first hand on Wednesday, shooting only 36% from inside the arc. With a presence like Cockburn in the lane, the Illini allow 44.7% from 2-point range and 58.7% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math. Ohio State is going to have to do most of their damage from behind the arc.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Illini and Buckeyes both match up well with their opposing defenses, so I think this is going to be an offensive showcase even if Ayo Dosunmu is on the sidelines. Additionally, Illinois plays a really fast tempo, so I expect them to try and force Ohio State out of their comfort zone and turn this into a track meet. Therefore, I am going to back Over 150.5 points (PointsBet) and would play it up to 151.5.

Pick: Over 150.5 | Play up to 151.5

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