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The best way to gain an edge against the field is to compare the projected chance for a team to win against how many ESPN and Yahoo brackets that team is picked in. This is called Leverage — i.e. the percent difference between the two — which we use to bet on outcomes that are more likely than the public realizes.
A sound bracket strategy takes advantage of these discrepancies while also knowing when to forego Leverage for the more likely outcome. You can see how I try to find that balance in the breakdown of my bracket here, but below we’ll run through how to use Leverage for various potential strategies in each region.
A good rule of thumb before we begin: Any team with a three-game stretch of bright green I am very interested in. And any team with a three-game stretch of bright red means it might be worth fading them to gain a leg up on the field.
Also, you do not have to take every single potential upset I’m about to flag. But if you aren’t building your bracket around at least a couple … why are you even making a bracket?!
Note: All the following Leverage scores reflect the difference between my projected chances for each team to win each round and how many ESPN/Yahoo users have picked them as of Tuesday.
March Madness Bracket Leverage
This sheet features the round-by-round Leverage score for every team in all four regions. Be sure to download my Bracket Builder to customize Leverage scores based on the different possible outcomes.
Midwest Region
The three- to four-game range between the Round of 32 and the Final four where it would be smart to eliminate Illinois in your bracket. You can see Loyola Chicago and Tennessee offer leverage over that same stretch because the public is underrating their potential to take down the 1-seeded Illinois.
Meanwhile, San Diego State offers a nice leverage play to upset the 3-seeded West Virginia.
You can also see Houston really start to offer value right around the Elite Eight. The Cougars are a great Final Four pick and a sneaky team to win it all. They would benefit from Illinois getting knocked out before the Elite Eight, making their path that much easier.
East Region
Everyone is in love with Georgetown, which is creating a ton of value on Colorado. If you’re feeling frisky, you can even have Colorado upset Michigan — the Wolverines are vulnerable without Isaiah Livers. However, Michigan does offer value in the Final Four, and it’s possible that Livers is able to return by then.
The Wolverines are also likely to benefit from a chaotic bottom-half of the bracket. As you can see, 3-seeded Texas is very vulnerable out of the gate. Having either 6/11 seeds upset the Longhorns is the smart play — I even like the 7- or 10-seed to upset No. 2 Alabama.
South Region
You have to decide whether Baylor gets knocked out around the Sweet 16 or take the Bears to win it all. Most people have them going to the Final Four or championship game, but not enough people have them winning it all.
Baylor is a volatile team heading in and you should capitalize by picking either extreme. If you want to be aggressive, the 8- or 9-seed has a better chance of taking Baylor down than people realize. But Purdue seems to be the “sweet” spot if the Boilermakers meet the Bears in the Sweet 16.
Ohio State is a darkhorse to win it all, but the sharp play is to have the Buckeyes ousted by either Florida or Arkansas — the Razorbacks seem like a sneaky Final Four play.
West Region
Gonzaga may go down as the greatest NCAA team ever. Don’t be turned off by their -8.5% leverage score in the finals — it’s hard to finish in the money if you don’t pick the correct winner, so Gonzaga is still a great pick to win it all. Just know that if you do choose the Zags as your winner, you’ll need to be more aggressive with the rest of your bracket to create some leverage.
No. 6 USC taking down No. 3 Kansas is much more likely than the public realizes. Other than that, this region is pretty straightforward and sets up nicely for Gonzaga.
If you want to fade Gonzaga, take Iowa against the Zags in the Elite Eight. The Hawkeyes would be pretty much on par with any team left at that point and a serious contender to win it all.