Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Pulisic.
Honduras vs. United States Odds
| Honduras Odds | +430 |
| United States Odds | -148 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+123 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Universo | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via UniBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
It’s only Matchday 3, but the United States might already be facing a must-win scenario when they visit Honduras on Wednesday night in San Pedro Sula.
The Americans have only disappointing draws to show from their opening two matches, which were away to El Salvador and home to Canada.
The latter was particularly disappointing considering the Americans had won 24 of their previous 30 home matches in the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualification since the 1998 cycle.
Honduras also has a pair of draws from its opening two games but was the only team in the region to play both of its opening two matches of the final round on the road.
The Hondurans have yet to score from open play, earning a 1-1 draw in Canada on Matchday 1 in a match where both teams struck from the penalty spot.
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Honduras Faces Questions in Attack
Los Catrachos won’t feel much sympathy for the Americans’ personnel issues.
Honduras are missing two of their more seasoned European-based attackers to injury in winger Alberth Elis and forward Choco Lozano.
That leaves 30-year-old CF Montreal striker Romell Quioto as the most likely offensive contributor. But Quioto has also battled the availability bug this season and was removed at halftime of Honduras’ 0-0 draw at El Salvador on Sunday, leaving open the possibility he may have sustained another.
On the other end, 38-year-old Maynor Figueroa continues to defy time and anchors a backline that could use some reinforcements.
Right back Andy Najar’s career rebirth with D.C. United has come at a perfect time for Honduras. He was arguably the most dangerous player on the field for either team in the draw against Canada in Toronto, earning Honduras’ first-half penalty and serving the ball that led to their best second-half chance.
Americans Facing Turmoil On, Off Field
The Americans’ results would be reason enough for concern, given they came against two of the perceived weaker teams in the region.
Add their growing personnel issues and this September window risks turning into a disaster.
Weston McKennie has been sent back to Juventus after multiple violations of the team’s COVID-19 protocols resulted in his omission from the gameday roster against Canada. Giovanni Reyna and Sergino Dest, meanwhile, are out hurt.
Christian Pulisic and Tyler Adams are both healthy, but Pulisic went the full 90 minutes in his first game back from a COVID-related absence against Canada, and Adams has played consecutive full 90s.
Starting either in Honduras is a dangerous game, particularly both players have already dealt with soft tissue injuries during their young careers.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The easy money may have been made off this game early when the Americans were installed as -200 favorites.
That’s a silly number for a team with this kind of baggage and pressure right now, and it sure appears sharp bettors took advantage.
Even so, the value remains on the hosts. But the equation in terms of best value has changed.
For me, it’s on playing an Asian Handicap at Honduras +1.0 goals at -175 odds and an implied 63.6% implied probability.
The United States is still the more talented side — even shorthanded — and could clearly find a way to win.
But a multi-goal victory is almost unfathomable. No American team has ever accomplished the feat here in qualifying.
Meanwhile, the likelihood that the Catrachos earn a point is strong enough that it’s worth playing, even if you’re close to equally likely to take your money back in a push.
Pick: Honduras +1.0 (-175)
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