Daniel Shirey/Getty Images. Pictured: Steve Kerr.
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | +5.5 |
| Warriors Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 231 |
| Time | Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet | |
The Warriors and Grizzlies enter their Sunday matchup tied for the eighth and ninth seeds in the West. The eighth seed gives the winner the ability to win one of two games to break out of the play-in tournament and into the playoffs. The ninth seed would force the loser to win back-to-back games to make the playoffs.
Despite what seems to be a big difference to this writer, both teams have decided to rest their players. The Grizzlies will be without their seven leaders in minutes per game. The Warriors have not taken an as cautious of an approach as only Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green will rest.
The big names sitting out might make this game an eyesore but it does increase the uncertainty surrounding the matchup. Less certainty means there is more value to be had. Let’s look further for the right angle to take in this matchup.
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Grizzlies Bench Must Shine
This will be the second game Memphis has rested its players in preparation for the postseason. The first ended in their favor in a close 107-106 victory over the Kings. Of course, the Kings had already fallen into tank mode and also held out their best players. Even beating backups is a good confidence boost for the players who will be on the court for Memphis.
Leading the charge against the Kings was forward Justise Winslow. His 25 points and 13 rebounds led the team in both categories. His effort on the boards is definitely needed as the Grizzlies will sit three of their tallest players.
Where Memphis disappointed the most was in the play of their backcourt. The guards shot just 13 for 41 from the field and 3 for 20 from behind the arc. Being backups is no excuse for playing so poorly offensively. Add in that Memphis’s bigs were playing well, and the poor play looks worse as it is paired with poor decision making.
Defensively, Memphis played well against Sacramento but stopping a bad team’s backups does not say much. I do expect at least a competent effort though as Memphis ranks sixth in Defensive Rating on the year. That may be with their starters, but defense and toughness are built in their ethos. These players were all signed onto this team with the gritty play style and attitude in mind.
Warriors Continue to Rest Curry & Green
The Warriors took an approach similar to Memphis in their previous game, resting their key players. They would also end with a similar result against the Pelicans, winning a close game 125-122. New Orleans was missing several starters, but they were nowhere near as gutted as the Kings.
Carrying the Warriors to victory were guards Mychal Mulder and Jordan Poole. Poole has shown the potential to have a game similar to his 38-point performance when Steph Curry has previously sat out. Per Statmuse Poole averages 22.0 points and shoots 46.5% from the floor in games Steph Curry missed this year.
Opening things up for Poole was Mulder’s sharpshooting. Mulder shot seven for 13 from 3-point range and ended the night with 28 points. This was not Mulder’s first time putting up big numbers either. In the past two weeks, he has had similar performances, scoring 25 against the Thunder and 26 against the Mavs. His hot hand continuing would be a big help for the shorthanded Warriors.
Finding defense will be the challenge for the Warriors without their leader Draymond Green. Missing their offensive leaders, the Pelicans still shot 46.5% from the floor and 40.7% from 3. Green not only took on key defensive responsibilities, but he also led the team as the vocal leader on the court. Fortunately, Memphis’s weak point is their shooting so they might not have what it takes to capitalize on Golden State’s flaws.
Grizzlies-Warriors Pick
With the key players resting in this matchup, coaching will play an even bigger influence than usual. Memphis’s Taylor Jenkins has done a solid job in his first two years helping his team to two play-in games. However, the edge has to go to Steve Kerr in this regard.
Kerr’s ability to take the Warriors from good to great in his rookie season shows his ability to get the most from his players. Even with his depleted roster, I expect Kerr to set his players in more advantageous situations.
Not only will the coaching edge go to the Warriors but the talent edge should. This is not just because the Warriors are resting fewer players but also because we have seen more potential from the players they will have.
Back the Warriors to take care of business and lock in the eighth seed.
Pick: Warriors -5.5 to -7
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