Sebastien Salom-Gomis/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Nantes standout Randal Kolo Muani.
Things didn’t get off to a great start for our crew last week when it comes to global underdogs. Three of our soccer analysts had a rough go of it, thanks to Manchester United delivering a 5-1 trashing to Leeds United.
However, there’s always another week of action and plenty of opportunities to come through with some upset winners. That said, our quintet of handicappers have five different live teams ready for you on this weekend’s card.
And if you’re wondering what kind of payout you’d get if these picks wind up hitting via a five-team parlay, a $10 wager would result in a $5,870.97 win when calculating the odds using our Betting Odds Calculator.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the world. Whether it’s a showdown in the Premier League, Serie A, Major League Soccer, Ligue 1 or even the Championship, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a peak at the selections from the squad on the card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Augsburg | Augsburg | +425 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Peterborough vs. Preston North End | Peterborough | +255 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Inter Milan vs. Genoa | Genoa | +900 | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Wolves vs. Spurs | Wolves | +215 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| Rennes vs. Nantes | Nantes | +340 | Sunday | 11 a.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
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Anthony Dabbundo: Augsburg ML (+425) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30a.m. ET
This is a pure fade of Eintracht Frankfurt, who have looked miserable in their first few matches under new manager Oliver Glasner.
It took Glasner time to implement his system when he was at Wolfsburg and Frankfurt have really struggled in preseason before being trashed by Borussia Dortmund, 5-2, in their Bundesliga opener.
One goal scored came from a Dortmund own goal, and the second was a late consolation in a blowout. Augsburg weren’t good either, losing 4-0 to Hoffenheim in a beatdown. However, Frankfurt is still way too overpriced here. They don’t have a striker with a history of success in the German top flight since selling André Silva, plus the defense looked extremely vulnerable in transition against Dortmund.
Augsburg was one of the most extreme counterattacking sides in all of Europe last year, so they could find some success hitting Frankfurt on the break. My projections have Augsburg at +400, but I’d play them down to +430 odds.
Jeremy Pond: Peterborough United ML (+255) vs. Preston North End
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
When it comes to this regular feature, I have nothing but love for the Lilywhites of Preston North End. The Championship outfit delivered me a nice win as a +215 underdog against Nottingham Forest last season, helping me hit a four-team parlay and round robin.
However, I’m putting my admiration for the club on hold this week and going with Preston’s latest opponent — Peterborough United — to pull off an upset of its own on the road at Deepdale Stadium. The Posh (yes, that’s Peterborough’s nickname) are 1-1-1 to start their campaign, most recently settling for a 2-2 draw at Cardiff during a midweek clash.
Jonson Clarke-Harris assisted on both Peterborough goals, which came in a two-minute span less than 10 minutes into the second half. However, Aden Flint scored twice deep in the match, including an equalizer in the fifth minute of stoppage time to steal a road point at Weston Homes Stadium.
In contrast, Preston has been godawful thus far. The club is last in the table, sitting in 24th place with no points and seven goals conceded in three games. The Lilywhites can’t get anything going offensively, either, recording just two goals in the campaign.
That said, I’m finding plenty of value on Peterborough even after that tough home draw. They’re simply in better form and face a foe going nowhere fast. Back the Posh at +255 odds via DraftKings to snatch the road triumph.
Michael Leboff: Genoa ML (+900) vs. Inter Milan
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
Welcome to Hell.
Last season, Inter Milan became the first team not named Juventus to win the Scudetto since the 2010/11 campaign. It was a complete performance from Nerazzurri, as they finished at or near the top of the league in goals scored, goals allowed, goal differential, xGF, xGA and xG differential
It was a complete performance orchestrated by manager Antonio Conte, starring Romelu Lukaku.
Unfortunately for Inter fans, they won’t get the chance to salute Conte or Lukaku at Saturday’s curtain-raiser. Conte left the club (as is tradition) and is awaiting his next coaching gig, while Lukaku is back at Chelsea.
Conte and Lukaku aren’t the only big names from last season missing from the festivities at the San Siro, as Achraf Hakimi also exited, while Christian Eriksen is still recovering after his health scare at the European Championships.
Inter did bring in bodies to help shore up the squad, but Edin Džeko is not Lukaku and I wonder if there will be an adjustment period under new manager Simone Inzaghi. That kind of turmoil is enough to make an Inter fade in Week 1 interesting to me, even if the opponent is one of the biggest longshots in the Italian top flight this season.
Like I said, welcome to Hell.
Wolves star Raul Jimenez waits to walk out of the tunnel ahead of a preseason friendly. Photo credit: Jack Thomas – WWFC/Wolves via Getty ImagesBJ Cunningham: Wolves ML (+215) vs. Tottenham Hotspur
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
Despite losing 1-0 at Leicester City last weekend, Wolves was incredibly impressive on the offensive side of things.
Wolverhampton outshot Leicester, 17-9; out-created them by a 1.66-0.55 margin on expected goals; and, had 27 shot-creating actions compared to only 14 for the Foxes.
This will be a very interesting encounter for the club as it faces former manager Nuno Espírito Santo, but if Wolves look as lively as they did against Leicester, they should be able to break down a Tottenham defense that allowed Manchester City to create 2.30 xG against them last time out.
I’ll be honest. Who knows if Harry Kane is going to play, but in their 19 matches away from home last season Spurs had a -3.66 xGDiff and allowed a whopping 1.53 xG per match, which was 10th in the Premier League. In fact, five of Spurs’ eight road wins last season came against the bottom six teams.
I have Wolves projected at +206 odds with Kane in the lineup for Tottenham. However, I would also tell everyone to be patient with this line, because if Kane is confirmed in the lineup, this number is going to likely get steamed hard in favor of Spurs.
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Matthew Trebby: Nantes ML (+340) vs. Rennes
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
Nantes started the Ligue 1 season well, with four points from two games via their 1-1 draw at Monaco and a 2-0 win against Metz. The Canaries were in a relegation battle last season, only retaining their French top-flight status due to a relegation playoff matchup against Toulouse.
Their metrics indicate they were relatively unfortunate to be in that situation, though. Nantes only had a goal difference of -8, plus their non-penalty expected goal difference was -4.34 as well. The Canaries finished the season well, with a +2.3 NPxGDiff after the league’s holiday break.
The real reason this stands out, though, is Rennes’ extremely subpar start to this season. They have two 1-1 draws so far, but the metrics show they’ve been fortunate. Those ties saw them allow 2.14 xG to Lens and 2.30 xG versus Brest. Neither team is going to be fighting toward the top of the table, although Lens does have some sleeper potential as the season goes on.
Rennes star Eduardo Camavinga, who is out of contract next summer, has been linked to transfer rumors the past few months. He’s reportedly holding out for a move to Paris Saint-Germain, but Manchester United is among the teams allegedly to be interested in the 18-year-old standout.
The 4.44 NPxGDiff allowed by Rennes, which indicates they’ve been lucky to just concede twice through two games, were the most in Ligue 1 entering the third week of play. Getting Nantes at a number like +340 is great value.
