Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager David Moyes of West Ham United.
Another busy weekend of soccer on the global landscape has arrived, giving our analysts another chance at delivering some live moneyline gems.
Handicappers Jeremy Pond, Brett Pund, BJ Cunningham and Matthew Trebby are back it again, hoping to uncover some longshots to win their matches in various leagues around the continent.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the world. Whether it’s a match in the Ligue 1, Premier League, Major League Soccer or even the Championship, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at their top selections on the interesting card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall vs. Coventry City | Coventry | +210 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Norwich City vs. Watford | Watford | +245 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Reims vs. Lorient | Lorient | +230 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| West Ham vs. Manchester United | West Ham | +340 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here
_PromoID=[3995, 5577]
Jeremy Pond: Coventry City ML (+210) vs. Millwall
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Some people like to pick winners. And then there are those folks like me who continue going back to a dry well better known as the Championship in search of the next Preston North End or upset winner.
This week? Let me introduce you to Coventry City. The side, which gained promotion from League One despite the season ending nine games early due to the pandemic. League officials opted to use an unweighted points-per-game formula to determine its champion, which went to the Sky Blues.
Needless to say, Coventry has made the most of its spot in the English second division, putting together five wins through seven fixtures that’s good enough for fourth in the table. The Sky Blues are coming off back-to-back clean sheets against Middlesbrough (2-0) and Cardiff City (1-0) as well.
As for Millwall, it hasn’t been as fortunate. Through seven games, the Lions mustered just one win to go along with four draws and two defeats. They’re unbeaten in their last three league tilts, but the stalemates continue to pile up and have frustrated the fans at The Den.
This number is about right, but I have to back the side in much better form and playing like a top-five club that could be in the mix for Premier League promotion. Jump on Coventry at +210 odds and enjoy the match.
Brett Pund: Watford ML (+245) vs. Norwich City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 am. ET
It truly baffles me how Norwich City can be a favorite over any Premier League club, which is why I’m taking my chances with Watford in this matchup.
I know, the Hornets haven’t been much better themselves in their return to the top flight, but on paper, they’re a more talented squad than the Canaries.
Since it’s a pretty painful read to compare the advanced metrics of both clubs, let’s take an easier approach. Watford won both matches against Norwich City last season in the Championship.
Over the summer, the Canaries sold arguably its best player in Emiliano Buendía and replaced him with unproven Premier League players (no slight to American international Josh Sargent).
Watford didn’t lose anyone as important as that from last season’s squad, but it’s now a +240 underdog? I like the Hornets and will continue to fade the Canaries until proven otherwise.
BJ Cunningham: Lorient ML (+230) vs. Reims
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Reims is doing exactly what they did last season, having a -2.05 expected goals differential through their first five matches and they’ve actually lost the xG battle in four of those affairs.
In case you forgot what the Red and Whites finished a campaign ago, they wound up in 14th place with a -8 goal differential, but had the second-fewest xG and the second-most xGA, which resulted in a -28.56 xGDiff overall. They also sold their top striker who created 40% of their xG during the summer.
Lorient hasn’t been great to begin the season, but they were due for a lot of positive regression on the defensive side of things. They had 68 actual goals allowed, but their opponents only created 52.48 xG in the category.
Yes, I am backing a team that has only one win on the road since the start of last season, but do you know who that one win was against? Yep, it was Reims. Les Merlus swept them last season via a 3-1 road win and 1-0 home victory, plus out-created them by a 3.31-0.94 xG margin.
I only have Lorient projected at +177, so I love them at +230 odds.
_PromoID=[24]
Matthew Trebby: West Ham ML (+340) vs. Manchester United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Two teams due for attacking regression are set to meet in London, so why not back the one playing on home soil?
West Ham United and Manchester United will square off at the London Stadium, where I think the host will have great value. At roughly +340 at most books, that’s around a 22% chance of West Ham earning the victory.
These teams have been pretty similar so far this season, with great finishing leading the way. The only difference is in defense, where West Ham have had their hiccups, most noteworthy allowing two goals to Crystal Palace at home.
United are atop the league table with a +4.05 non-penalty expected-goal difference, while West Ham is at +1.88 in the advanced metric. You could argue the Hammers have the midfield edge, where Tomáš Souček is a constant attacking threat and Declan Rice thrive as the playmakers.
The Red Devils have more proven quality across the pitch, but they just showed how they can shrink when the going gets tough. A 2-1 loss to Swiss outfit Young Boys, albeit with 10 men for about 55 minutes of the match, was an awful result that showed they still have a long way to go before legitimately contending for a title in the English top flight.
That said, the Hammers are more than capable of providing a big blow and deliver a huge upset win.
