Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standout Mason Mount.
We have another loaded weekend of matches taking place on the global soccer landscape, with some intriguing live underdogs looking to stir the pot against their respective foes.
It was tough go of it last weekend, with our handicappers coming up winless on their picks. However, the crew is back again with three new selections.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend across the planet. Whether it’s a showdown in the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Premier League or even Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at our analysts’ latest selections on the slate.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest vs. Preston North End (Championship) | Preston | +215 | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| Manchester City vs. Chelsea (Premier League) | Chelsea | +330 | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Saint-Étienne vs. Marseille (Ligue 1) | Saint-Étienne | +220 | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
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Jeremy Pond: Preston North End ML (+215) vs. Nottingham Forest
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
We struck gold in the Championship a few weeks back when Birmingham City earned a 2-1 upset victory as a road underdog against Derby County. So, why not take another swing in England’s second division via Preston North End?
The Lilywhites deserve a promotion to the Premier League just for their nickname alone, but we love that oddsmakers have tabbed them at +215 odds in this fixture. Preston sits in 13th place in the table after its 2-0 victory against Barnsley on home soil last time out. That gave the club three consecutive wins prior to this trip to the East Midlands for this contest.
In contrast, the Tricky Trees (these nicknames belong in the moniker Hall of Fame if there was such a thing) are winless in their last five games. They’ve settled for three draws in a row, including a brutal 0-0 stalemate against relegation contender Sheffield Wednesday in their latest disappointment.
This match really comes down to who’s in better form at this late stage of the season. Obviously, that advantage falls solely on Preston. The Lilywhites continue to make moves in their pursuit of a top-10 finish in the table.
Preston has earned four consecutive clean sheets entering this affair, which has me confident it can make it five shutouts in a row against its fading opponents.
That said, back the Lilywhites to chop down the Tricky Trees and bag all three points in their ascension up the standings.
| [Bet Preston North End at DraftKings and get $250 FREE.] |
Anthony Dabbundo: Chelsea ML (+330) vs. Manchester City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
There were a lot of good options this week when it comes to an underdog pick. Borussia Mönchengladbach, RB Leipzig, Sevilla and Mainz all stood out as potential good longshot bets, but I’m going back to the well on the second best team in the world at a great price.
My projections show a little bit of value on the Blues in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Chelsea showed two weeks ago when it beat Manchester City in the FA Cup what the blueprint is to beat this global powerhouse.
If manager Pep Guardiola has adjustments and tweaks, he’s unlikely to show his hand in this game when the Cityzens have a much more important Champions League final against the Blues later this month.
The game is much more critical for the Chelsea’s top four chances, while Manchester City has all but clinched the Premier League title. The Blues’ defense has averaged less than one expected goal allowed every two matches since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager, so I’ll ride its elite back line and warming attack to get all three points.
| [Bet Chelsea at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.] |
BJ Cunningham: Saint-Étienne ML (+220) vs. Marseille
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
One of the more underrated teams in Ligue 1 hosts the most overrated team in the French top flight on Sunday’s card. Marseille is the only team with something to play for in this match, as it’s pursuing for a Europa League spot. However, Saint-Étienne should not be this big of an underdog.
For those who don’t remember the beginning of the season, Saint-Étienne opened up with three consecutive wins, including a 2-0 road victory over Marseille. However, from Sept. 20 to Jan. 30, Les Verts only won in one game.
Since the club ended that horrible run of form ,though, its underlying metrics have been pretty good, accumulating a +4.46 xGD over 14 matches, while only allowing 1.12 xG per contest.
Les Verts should also have a lot more points to their name than they currently do, as they have 49.27 xPoints (per Understat) compared to 42 actual points. Their xPoints total though is only 0.71 points lower than Marseille’s number.
Marseille is wildly overrated mainly because of its offense. The Phoecaeans have netted 50 goals this season, but only created 43.28 expected goals. Their underlying metrics have also been atrocious on the road for a team currently sitting in sixth place. Marseille is creating only 1.02 xG per match, while allowing 1.50 xG per match in 17 road games.
I think Saint-Étienne, which is wildly undervalued, is absolutely capable of walking away with all three points at home. I have them Les Verts at +150 odds, so I think there is plenty of value on them to pull the upset at +240 odds.
| [Bet Saint-Étienne at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.] |