Lynne Cameron – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Patrick Bamford.
Hey, soccer fans. We’re back at it again with our weekly feature highlighting our favorite moneyline underdogs in matches taking place around the world.
We have five featured selections on the schedule, with three of our handicappers backing Leeds United to upset Manchester United at Old Trafford. Can the Peacocks pull off the surprise? Only time will tell.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend across the planet. Whether it’s a showdown in the Premier League, MLS, La Liga, Ligue 1 or even the Championship, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at the picks from our crew on the weekend card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United vs. Leeds | Leeds | +500 | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| Millwall vs. Blackburn | Blackburn | +240 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Leicester City vs. Wolves | Wolves | +450 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings & BetMGM.
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Michael Leboff: Leeds ML (+500) vs. Manchester United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
In every sport, there are teams that are outliers and must be handicapped differently from the rest of the competition. Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United are one of these teams.
Built on Bielsa’s all-action philosophy, Leeds doesn’t give their opponents a second to breathe. No team in the Premier League applies more pressure than the Peacocks, which makes them a nightmare draw for any team during opening week.
As you’ll see below, United will be missing key players, while other members of their squad are working their way back to fitness after playing in various international tournaments this summer. Leeds doesn’t really have to worry about that, so their fresh legs could give the host fits as they try to get into their playing rhythm.
Because of their rollercoaster style, Leeds projects as a team you want to back at big prices and perhaps tread carefully with when they are favored. That played out last season, with Leeds going 6-13 as an underdog, but providing a 39.4% ROI in those 19 matches.
Going to Old Trafford as a 5/1 underdog might seem like a tall task for most, but you can basically throw that out the window when it comes to Leeds.
Jeremy Pond: Leeds ML (+475) vs. Manchester United
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
The Peacocks are going to take me on another emotional whirlwind this season, but I’m all about embracing the upcoming joy and pain.
And why not start things off by backing Leeds to bag all three points against undermanned Manchester United side in its opening match?
Numerous players, including Marcus Rashford, Jesse Lingard, Dean Henderson, Phil Jones, Eric Bailly and several others reportedly won’t be available for United. Edinson Cavani has also been deemed doubtful, which creates plenty of question marks surrounding the club’s Starting XI and makes them a prime candidate for an opening-weekend stunner.
The Peacocks were a lovely surprise in their return to England’s top flight last season, finishing ninth in the table after a brilliant stretch of results deep in the campaign. Leeds went unbeaten in 10 of its final 11 fixtures, including a four-match winning streak to close things with an exclamation point at Elland Road.
There were massive wins in there, highlighted by a 2-1 road triumph at Manchester City and a 3-1 home victory over Tottenham Hotspur. The club also notched a scoreless draw against Champions League winner Chelsea, plus ties with Liverpool (1-1) and Manchester United (0-0) to raise eyebrows around Europe.
If there was ever a time for Leeds to shock United, this would be it. The Peacocks are healthier, more fit and ready to make a run further up the table with Patrick Bamford and Jack Harrison powering an offense that created 57.5 expected goals last season.
Back Leeds to stun United on Manchester soil at +475 odds or better via BetMGM, then sit back relax and enjoy the show.
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Anthony Dabbundo: Leeds ML (+500) vs. Manchester United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
The Premier League is back, with an old-time rivalry renewing when Manchester United hosts Leeds at Old Trafford.
The value on the Peacocks comes with the host’s list of unavailable players. Marcus Rashford and Edinson Cavani are both out, while new centerback Raphael Varane is unlikely to feature.
United have started poorly under manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær each of the last two seasons, with the club taking time to gel and find their form.
Premier League underdogs of +200 odds or better have a 25% ROI in the first matchweek of the season since the 2012-13 season. I’m firing on a Leeds side that proved it could challenge the big sides last year when it nearly beat Liverpool twice, defeated both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur, plus it drew with United and Arsenal.
My projection puts Leeds at +400 odds in this spot. The Peacocks are much healthier and should be more fit with fewer players in their team having summer commitments.
Leeds have to keep United out of transition to have any chance in this game, but manager Marcelo Bielsa showed in the reverse fixture — a 0-0 draw — that his side can keep the favorites away from dangerous counterattacks.
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BJ Cunningham: Blackburn ML (+240) vs. Millwall
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Blackburn was the Brighton & Hove Albion of the English Championship last season. Their +14 expected-goal differential was the best in the league outside of the three that got promoted to the Premier League, but they somehow finished in 15th place.
The Rovers were also the second-best road team in the Championship, putting up a +8.4 xGDiff behind only Brentford. They won both meetings against Millwall last season, dominating the road meeting against them. Blackburn secured a 2-0 shutout victory, holding Millwall to 0.85 xG for the match.
The club did lose one of their best strikers Adam Armstrong to Southampton earlier this week, but have some names you might recognize like Ben Brereton, who starred for Chile in Copa America this summer. Blackburn came out of the gates hot in the opener, earning a 2-1 win against Swansea. The Rovers thrashed the Swans in the xG battle, dominating with a 3.97-0.85 margin.
Millwall might have finished ahead of Blackburn last season, but were an average side putting up a -2.4 xGDiff for the season. So, I don’t think they should be slight favorites over a side as talented as Blackburn.
I’d bet Blackburn at anything +200 or better, plus I also think there’s a ton of value on their future price of +2500 at DraftKings to win the Championship.
Matthew Trebby: Wolves ML (+450) vs. Leicester City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 am. ET
I’m not too high on Leicester City this season for a few reasons.
Over the last two Premier League campaigns, Leicester have outperformed their xG data, especially last season. The Foxes had the ninth-best non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGDiff) but finished fifth and barely outside the Champions League places. Back in 2019-20, Leicester’s goal difference was +26 and their NPxGDiff was +15.39 in the advanced metrics.
Jamie Vardy enters this season at 34 years old, with him eventually facing possible competition for his spot in the Leicester lineup. He had more goals from the penalty spot than open play last season, and the pace that’s so important to his game is bound to fade soon.
Meanwhile, Wolves have a new manager in Bruno Lage and center forward Raul Jimenez is back after being sidelined last season with a lengthy injury. Wolverhampton is a team that has a stable identity, plus reliable faces on defense that will be all too familiar with the likes of Vardy and the Foxes.
Leicester beat Wolves once last season in a 1-0 result, and the other league matchup was a scoreless draw. I like the under in this game as well, but love getting Wolves at such a high number. I’ll take them at +450 on DraftKings as my top underdog pick.
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