Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Wayne Rooney of Derby County.
There is another busy weekend of matches ahead on the global soccer landscape, with plenty of live underdogs laying low and just waiting for the right opportunity to pounce on their heavily favored opponents.
Our Action Network handicappers had a rough outing last time out, with just one moneyline dog pulling off an upset among our five picks. However, it was a big one analyst Anthony Dabbundo came through with via Chelsea (+370) earning to a 1-0 win over Manchester City in an FA Cup semifinal-round affair.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend across the planet. Whether it’s a showdown in Ligue 1, Serie A, Premier League or even Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at the crew’s latest selections on the slate.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County vs. Birmingham City (Championship) | Birmingham | +215 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Real Valladolid vs. Cádiz (La Liga) | Cádiz | +330 | Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
| Philadelphia vs. Inter Miami (MLS) | Inter Miami | +220 | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| Wolves vs. Burnley (Premier League) | Burnley | +290 | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
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EUROPEAN UNDERDOG PICKS
Jeremy Pond: Birmingham City ML (+215) vs. Derby County
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Oh, how life has changed for Wayne Rooney.
The England legend was a five-time Premier League title winner with Manchester United. He led the Red Devils to a Champions League crown during the 2007-2008 season. Rooney also has the most goals for his primary club and country, holding the all-time records for Manchester United (253) and England (53) that put him among the game’s historical striking elite.
Unfortunately for Rooney, all has not been as pretty and pristine during his time as Derby County manager. The Rams are a hot mess in the Championship, losers of four consecutive matches entering Saturday’s crucial showdown with resurgent Birmingham City.
Derby County sits in 21st place out of 24 teams in England’s second division, with just four points separating them from the bottom three and dreaded relegation zone. A midweek blowout loss to Preston North End didn’t help matters, so this fixture becomes all that more important for the Rams.
Unfortunately for Derby County, it faces an in-form Birmingham City side that is unbeaten in its last five league affairs. The Blues have picked up 11 crucial points in those contests, going 3-0-2 (W-L-D) to push themselves clear of the drop zone.
Birmingham City, which is in 17th place, on 49 points is coming off a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest. The Blues were extremely unfortunate to not secure all three points, due to the fact they conceded a 97th-minute goal via a penalty and had to settle for the stalemate.
This match all comes down to form, with Birmingham City in far better shape than Rooney’s club. Sure, the Rams have won five of the last six games between these sides across all competitions, but they’re in a bad spot right now, and I don’t see them righting the ship against the improving Blues.
Back Birmingham City to squeak out the road victory at Pride Park Stadium, thus keeping Rooney and the Rams on their downward spiral.
| [Bet Birmingham City at DraftKings and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.] |
BJ Cunningham: Cádiz ML (+330) vs. Real Valladolid
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET
Real Valladolid should not be favored in this match, because when you compare its expected-goals differential with Cádiz, they are essentially the same. The numbers say Real Valladolid has a -13.46 xGD, which isn’t much better than the -18.30 xGDiff for Cadiz entering this contest.
Real Valladolid has also been one of La Liga’s worst teams at home this season, taking only 14 of a possible 45 points. Not to mention Real Valladolid only has one win in their last 14 league matches.
Cádiz has actually been in pretty decent form for a team in the bottom half of the table, winning three of its last seven matches. The Pirates have also taken the eighth-most points on the road this season, which is impressive for a newly promoted club.
The previous meeting between these two clubs ended in a scoreless draw, but Cádiz won the xG battle by a 0.87-0.43 advantage, with Real Valladolid only registering seven shots in the match.
Additionally, Real Valladolid is going to be without one of its main strikers in Shon Weissman, who has created the third-most xG on the team this season.
I have Cádiz projected at +286 odds, so I think it’s worth a shot at +330 against the 17th-place team in the table.
| [Bet Cádiz at DraftKings and get $250 FREE.] |
Anthony Dabbundo: Burnley ML (+290) vs. Wolves
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 7 am. ET
Wolves are safely mid-table in the Premier League, but they’re piling up injuries entering this weekend’s match with Burnley. There’s a trend where teams who have little to play for down the final stretch of the season tend to fall off in underlying metrics and results. Case in point: Wolverhampton.
Meanwhile, there’s a history of teams improving their performance at season’s end in an attempt to fight off relegation and stay in England’s top flight. That would be Burnley.
The market tends to price this in, but it isn’t in this situation in this contest. The Clarets are relatively safe on 33 points, but Fulham is only six points behind and could make up ground down the stretch.
Manager Sean Dyche of Burnley reacts after his side’s Premier League match against Newcastle United at Turf Moor. Photo credit: Newcastle United/Newcastle United via Getty Images.Burnley manager Sean Dyche has a knack for getting results just they’re needed to keep his team up, plus the Clarets always have a strong work rate.
Needless to say, Burnley wants at least one more victory to feel safe about its position in the league.
My projections put the Clarets at +240 odds to win this low-scoring matchup, and with less variance, I like their chances of stealing the points and securing safety. Throw in Wolves’ injuries and I would play Burnley at +260 or better.
| [Bet Burnley at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.] |
MLS UNDERDOG PICK
Matt Trebby: Inter Miami ML (+220) vs. Philadelphia
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 8 p.m. ET
Philadelphia isn’t going to be the same team as it was last season, losing some key players in defender Mark McKenzie to Belgian side Genk and playmaker Brendan Aaronson to German club RB Salzburg.
Meanwhile, Inter Miami is just getting its feet under it in Major League Soccer.
Last season’s debut campaign barely got started for David Beckham’s club, which has former England standout Phil Neville as its manager. Inter Miami suffered a 3-2 loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy in its season opener, but won the expected-goals battle by a 2.8-1.3 margin.
It was the finishing of Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and his two goals that helped the Galaxy secure the road triumph.
Philadelphia played reigning MLS Cup winner Columbus to a scoreless draw last weekend, which was a solid result away from home to start the season. However, Inter Miami showed me enough on debut that it’s going to take the game to whomever it faces.
With a still capable Gonzalo Higuain leading the attack, I like the +220 odds Inter Miami has entering the match in Philadelphia. There are going to be enough chances in this game that the team with the more clinical finishing might be the one that comes out on top.
Give me Inter Milan as my top pick at these odds.
| [Bet Inter Miami at DraftKings and get $250 FREE.] |