Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Saquon Barkley
Thursday Night Football featuring the New York Giants at Washington Football Team has the lowest over/under of Week 2, so safe to say we’re kicking the new NFL week off with fireworks.
Regardless of entertainment value, there is plenty of betting value to be had on TNF. Our analysts break down how they’re betting the Giants vs. WFT spread, total and more below.
Giants vs. WFT Picks
| Pick | Book |
|---|---|
| Washington Football Team -3 | PointsBet |
| Giants-WFT Under 41.5 | DraftKings |
| J.D. McKissic Over 16.5 Rec Yards | BetMGM |
_PromoID=[5651, 6071, 5916]
WFT -3
Sean Koerner: I previewed this matchup in further detail here, but the important takeaway is that the betting market seems to be overestimating the drop-off from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Taylor Heinicke — the Football Team won’t need Heinicke to do much to win this particular matchup.
I was projecting the Football Team as 6.5-point favorites before Fitzpatrick landed on the IR. However, I’m only docking them two points for the QB change, and now I’m projecting them as 4.5-point favorites here.
Since this should be a low scoring game, it’s worth buying the half-point if your book is offering -3.5, though I would bet this to -4.
_PromoID=[216]
Under 41.5
Chris Raybon: After the Giants offense looked listless in a 27-13 loss to the Broncos at home, it takes its league-worst offensive line on the road to face another tough defense in Washington.
In Week 1, the Football Team lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was placed on IR with a hip injury. Like the Giants, Washington is coming off a low-scoring loss (20-16 to the Chargers).
Week 2 Divisional unders are 55-38-1 (59.1%) since 2005, according to our Action Labs data.
I bet this at under 43.5 earlier in the week but like this down to 41.5 points, which is still available at DraftKings as of writing on Thursday afternoon (compare real-time NFL odds here).
J.D. McKissic Over 16.5 Rec Yards
Mike Randle: Taylor Heinicke is now under center for Washington, which creates a completely different target dynamic than with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
J.D. McKissic is an accomplished receiving back who has been overshadowed by preseason talk of increased passing game usage for Antonio Gibson. McKissic saw only one target in Week 1 against the Chargers, but was extremely efficient in two matchups against the Giants last season, tallying the following receiving stat lines:
- 6 receptions, 43 receiving yards
- 9 receptions, 65 receiving yards
Even with Gibson taking a larger role in the passing game, this line is still too low for an accomplished pass catcher such as McKissic. In 2020, the Giants allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
I’m taking advantage of McKissic’s low Week 1 output and backing the over on this TNF receiving yardage prop.