Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX (Regional) |
| Odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Saturday and via BetMGM. | |
After coming mere inches from victory on Friday, the Dodgers will try to return to their dominant ways against division rival San Francisco in the second of a three-game weekend set at home against the Giants.
Both teams will go with trusty starters in this one: The Giants will return Logan Webb to the rotation after a stint on the injured list, while Julio Urias will head back to the hill to keep working on his career year.
Are both offenses due to a letdown here after a wild extra-inning affair? Let’s have a look at the matchup and find some value here.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants needed a win in a bad way on Friday, and after some theatrics, they wound up getting it.
San Francisco was beginning to fade just a little, losing two straight and coming in off the back of four losses to the Dodgers in four meetings. In recent weeks, they’d fallen off their perch atop the NL West, sliding to third place behind the Dodgers. A victory restored order, putting San Francisco back in second place in the early going and restoring faith that it can hang with the big boys in this division.
Over the past two weeks, the Giants have seen their problems with strikeouts deepen, ranking fourth with 27.1% of plate appearances ending in a punchout. Their .329 wOBA is decent, though it’s questionable how sustainable offense will be considering they’re hitting just .224 at the dish. Friday was a good example of the Giants living off of just a couple big batted ball events — they got a solo shot in the fifth and a three-run homer in the eighth from Buster Posey. In a lot of ways, this resembles what’s going on with the Dodgers this year as well.
San Francisco gets Logan Webb back in the rotation, which is good news considering his great 3.63 xERA has put the Giants in position to win almost every time he takes the ball. But it’s bad news for 37-year-old Scott Kazmir, who took over for Webb and made us fall in love with him all over again — if only for a moment. Kazmir will head to long relief while Webb takes over.
This will be Webb’s first start against the Dodgers this season, but he’s made three over the past two years with varying success. He held L.A. to fewer than three runs in his first and latest start against the defending champs, but sandwiched between those outings is an ugly start in which he allowed five earned in just 3 2/3 innings.
It goes without saying that this version of Webb is the best we’ve seen, with a much-improved strikeout rate, so this has potential to be his best turn yet against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The extra-inning bug bit the Dodgers again on Friday — they’re now a shocking 1-7 in games that go to extras this year. Kenley Jansen has now had two blown saves and three losses in his three appearances in extras, and after Friday might be unavailable after pitching on consecutive games.
L.A. will expect to avoid extras on Saturday with Julio Urias, who is in the midst of a career year for the Dodgers. The former top-five prospect has continued to improve with each passing season and boasts a 3.03 ERA with what would be a career-best 2.81 FIP. His walk rate is a minuscule 2.9%, and he’s got his strikeout rate almost all the way up to 30%. He’s been flat-out dominant, carrying over all that success he had last year in the postseason.
The Dodgers may have some things to worry about offensively in this one, though it will help having Mookie Betts out of the lineup. Manager Dave Roberts says his struggling outfielder will get the night off after going hitless in six at-bats on Friday, dropping his average to .240 on the year. Obviously we’re living in 2021, so batting average isn’t the end-all be-all, but Betts looks like he’s a bit lost out there — we’re used to seeing the former MVP hit around .300 with 30 tanks, and he’s gone deep just five times this year.
On the whole, though, the Dodgers have been making plenty of contact. They rank second in that category over the past week, which was a big key to their title run last year. This offense has lacked a lot of the flair it’s had in years past, but it’s dealt with injuries all year long and is starting to round into form in spite of that fact.
Giants-Dodgers Pick
I’m sensing another low-scoring game between the Dodgers and Giants. Offense was hard to find on Friday in a decent pitching matchup, and I think the difficulty ratchets up for both sides here with Webb and Urias going. The Giants have hit lefties this year, but their offense has fallen into a bit of a rut, and it’s also going to face a tall task against the dominant Urias.
Urias’ spectacular strikeout season should torment the whiff-happy Giants, and Webb’s ability to pitch to contact should help him limit traffic on the basepaths and also the big blows that have helped the Dodgers win games lately.
I’ll take the under 7.5, but wouldn’t take it past that point.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
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