Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Azeez Ojulari
Georgia vs. Cincinnati Odds
| Georgia Odds | -7.5 |
| Cincinnati Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 51.5 |
| PRO Projection | UGA -58 | O/U 54.7 |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Sharps don’t seem to be wasting any time in 2021, as our PRO Report suggests they’ve made a move on Friday’s noon ET Peach Bowl between Georgia and Cincinnati.
And it’s not just professional action suggesting some value on the first kickoff of the year. Our model’s projection is right in line with the sharp play. So let’s take a look.
Note: Odds, data as of 7:15 p.m. ET Thursday.
Georgia vs. Cincinnati Pick
The pros are banking on offense Friday afternoon, as their big bets have helped tick this total upward.
Sharp Action
As of Thursday night, 73% of bettors on this total have taken the over. And while that’s not surprising — most prefer to root for offense rather than defense — it does make it a bit difficult to tell if this number’s rise from its opener is a result of sharp action.
Thankfully, three Bet Signals on the over from Action Labs have revealed three separate instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action, leaving no question as to at least one reason behind this move.
Sharp Action edge: Over
Big Money
Adding to that reason, the 73% of over bettors have generated 93% of money on the total. Of course, that’s a substantial monetary liability for sportsbooks to consider (though I’d expect both figures to regress a bit as kickoff approaches), but perhaps more importantly, the discrepancy between money and tickets reveals bigger bettors to be on the over.
And which bettors are likely to be making those bigger bets? Sharps.
Big Money edge: Over
Model Projection
Even following this line’s move from 50.5 to 51.5, our model still suggests there’s room to go.
It pegs the true total at 54.7, giving another field goal’s worth of value to the over at the currently offered number.
Model Projection edge: Over