Georgia State vs. North Carolina Odds & Pick: Revenge Spot For Tar Heels? (Sept. 11)

Georgia State vs. North Carolina Odds

After an extremely disappointing opening-week loss in Blacksburg, North Carolina looks to get back on track at home against the visiting Georgia State Panthers.

Georgia State enters Chapel Hill coming off a disappointing result of their own, dropping their opener 43-10 to Army.

Both teams will have a lot of mistakes to correct as they aim to pick up their first victory of the season.

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The Panthers entered 2021 with a decent amount of promise, coming off a 6-4 campaign and bringing back quarterback Cornelious Brown IV, among other playmakers.

The biggest problem in the Army matchup was that the Black Knights absolutely dominated the time of possession. Army held the ball for over 42 minutes of play and rushed for 258 yards on the ground.

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Panthers Offense

Due to the limited number of possessions against Army, Brown and the rest of the offense were never really able to establish much of a rhythm. Destin Coates coughed up a fumble on the first possession of the game, and Brown was later intercepted.

If GSU can take care of the ball early and get into a bit of a flow, they should be able to find more success. However, it won’t be an easy task against the Tar Heels defense.

One bright spot for the Panthers in the opener was junior wide receiver Jamari Thrash, who caught seven passes for 87 yards and looked very explosive.

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Panthers Defense

The Georgia State defense led the Sun Belt in both sacks and tackles for a loss a year ago. Against the triple-option Army offense, they were unable to generate any negative plays and were absolutely dominated on the ground.

Sam Howell and the rest of the North Carolina offense will present a much different challenge than the Black Knights on Saturday.

With Ty Chandler leading the rushing attack for the Tar Heels, and tons of weapons on the outside, this defensive unit will have their hands full once again.

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With all the hype entering the 2021 season for the Tar Heels, it’s hard to argue there was a more disappointing Week 1 result than the 17-10 loss to the Hokies in Blacksburg.

Carolina got off to an extremely slow start and never clawed its way back into the lead in a hostile environment.

Mack Brown will now need to lean on his experience and remind this team that there’s still plenty to play for in 2021. All of their goals are still in front of them, and getting back on track starts by handling business at home.

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Tar Heels Offense

Howell was a trendy Heisman pick and the Tar Heel offense was referred to as one of the most dynamic in the country.

Well, in the opener, those two things were anything but the case.

Howell threw three interceptions and a veteran offensive line allowed six sacks to the Virginia Tech front. North Carolina was unable to sustain any long drives and despite a rally, they came up short of tying the game late in the fourth quarter.

Time to hit the reset button, work out the kinks in practice all week and get back to what this group is capable of doing against a pedestrian Georgia State defense.

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Tar Heels Defense

As bad as the North Carolina offense was against Virginia Tech, the defense played a very respectable game, despite being thrown into multiple difficult situations.

Ja’Qurious Conley led the way for the Heels with seven tackles and an interception and linebacker Eugene Asante was all over the field throughout the game. This is an experienced secondary that will challenge the Georgia State receivers and make it difficult for Brown to find an open man.

After struggling to avoid big plays in 2020, this Carolina defense took a step forward in Week 1 and will look to build off of that when GSU enters Kenan Stadium.

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Georgia State vs. North Carolina Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and North Carolina match up statistically:

Georgia State Offense vs. North Carolina Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rushing Success	80	78
Passing Success	62	28
Havoc	76	98
Line Yards	83	104
Sack Rate	19	14
Finishing Drives	9	76

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North Carolina Offense vs. Georgia State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rushing Success	7	44
Passing Success	11	61
Havoc	48	64
Line Yards	16	34
Sack Rate	106	21
Finishing Drives	8	46

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	57	84
Coverage	40	78
Rush Rate	59.1% (33)	58.% (43)
Seconds per Play	14	75

Data via College Football Data (CFBD) and FootballOutsiders; SP+ projection per ESPN.

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Georgia State vs. North Carolina Betting Pick

This feels like a classic take-out-the-anger spot for the Tar Heels coming off a brutal loss last week.

The Heels are still an offensive juggernaut and Chandler should be able to run wild against a Panthers defense that cannot stop the run. Not to mention, after totaling 10 points a week ago, I don’t think this offense will be content winning a 31-10 type of game.

Expect Sam Howell and the Carolina offense to run it up on GSU and put up some monster numbers.

Brown and the Panthers offense should rebound a bit themselves, but they won’t have anywhere near the firepower to hang with the Tar Heels.

I’m laying the 25.5, and I would take it up to 28.

Pick: North Carolina -25.5 (Play to -28)

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