Georgetown vs. Butler Odds

Two struggling Big East squads meet in Indianapolis on Wednesday when Georgetown battles Butler.

Georgetown is struggling big time after losing its third straight Big East game to Marquette on Saturday.

Patrick Ewing’s squad was projected to finish near the bottom of the Big East, so another loss on Wednesday would likely seal the deal on its fate this season.

To make matters worse, senior guard Jalen Harris, who was playing 27.4 minutes per game this season, has stepped away from the team for personal reasons.

Happy New Year!

Georgetown coach Patrick Ewing is talking with media.

**Said he's traded texts with Jalen Harris but he's still away from the program

**Said sophomore Malcolm Wilson has been practicing well and has probably earned more mins.

Hoyas host Marquette Jan 2, 730pm

— Bobby Bancroft (@BobbyBancroft) January 1, 2021

Butler is struggling this season, as it only has two wins. The Bulldogs are currently without point guard Aaron Thompson and forward Christian David, who have missed most this season. Butler has had to rely on two freshmen in the backcourt, which hasn’t worked out well at both ends of the floor.

However, it’ll have a great opportunity to pick up a win over a struggling Georgetown squad.

When Georgetown has the ball

The Hoyas run a four out one in type of offense where everything usually runs through center Qudus Wahab, who’s almost averaging a double-double.

However, the Hoyas have really struggled from 2-point range over their last two games, shooting under 40%. The other issue is they’re not getting to the free-throw line, as they have the second-worst free-throw rate in the Big East.

Really, the only way Georgetown has stayed in any of its games is by lighting it up from deep, as it’s shooting 34% for the season.

To make matters worse, Georgetown turns the ball over too often to be competitive. In fact, it’s turned the ball over 31 times in its last two games. However, that won’t be much of an issue because Butler’s defense has the second-lowest turnover rate in the Big East.

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Butler’s defense downright stinks at pretty much everything. It ranks in the bottom 70 of college basketball in effective field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and 2-point percentage allowed, per KenPom. However, it’s been elite in one area, and that is defensive rebounding.

The Bulldogs have two experienced seniors in their front-court in Bryce Nze and Bryce Golden. They are absolute monsters on the glass, leading Butler to a rank of 11th in defensive rebounding percentage. That will come in handy against a Georgetown team with an offensive rebounding rate of over 30%.

When Butler has the ball

If the Bulldogs don’t knock down a high percentage of shots from beyond the arc, they are most likely always going to struggle.

Butler runs a drive-and-kick offense that creates a lot of open 3 point attempts but not many good looks inside the arc, as it’s shooting a dismal 45.6% from 2-point range. The Bulldogs also are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, making only 61.2% from the charity stripe.

Having two freshmen run the offense has really set Butler back, and it’s desperate to have Thompson back in the lineup. However, he’s still questionable after missing over three weeks of action.

#Butler's LaVall Jordan on injuries (thread).

AT: "Questionable, did a little more in practice yesterday. We'll see how he does today, he's progressing, and he's still day-to-day and we will make a call prior to the game."

— Lukas Harkins (@hardwiredsports) January 5, 2021

Georgetown has been solid on the defensive end of the floor this season and is above average in pretty much every advanced metric, except for one: turnover percentage. The Hoyas not only have the lowest turnover rate in the Big East, but they own one of the lowest in the country (333rd, per KenPom).

Georgetown will have a big advantage on Wednesday in terms of size, as its average height is almost two inches taller than Butler’s. The Hoyas are not elite on defense by any means, but if they use their size to their advantage, they should be able to shut down Butler’s offense, especially down low.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With two struggling offenses that seemingly can’t hit the broad side of a barn from inside the arc in their last two games, I think this is going to be a low-scoring affair.

Not to mention, Butler plays at a very slow pace, and on average, takes almost 20 seconds to get its first shot up on each possession.

I have the total projected at 139.64, so I think there’s some value on under 142.5 points. However, I wouldn’t play it any lower than that.

Pick: Under 142.5 or better.