Claudio Villa/Getty Images. Pictured: Members of the Italy soccer team celebrate a goal.
And there were eight.
Yes, the field has been cut in half after some wild Round of 16 matches. We enter the quarterfinal round Friday with two intriguing affairs on deck, starting with Switzerland taking on heavily favored Spain. Global powerhouses Belgium — the No. 1-ranked team in the world — and Italy battle in the nightcap.
Handicappers BJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo and Jeremy Pond deliver their best bets for these games. Let’s take a look at their top plays below and see what they think will be in the cards.
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Friday’s Euro 2020 Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| BJ Cunningham | Switzerland-Spain Over 2.5 (-105) | DraftKings |
| Anthony Dabbundo | Italy ML (+135) | DraftKings |
| Jeremy Pond | Italy To Advance (-150) | BetMGM |
Odds as of Thursday evening.
BJ Cunningham: Switzerland vs. Spain — Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Spain has held more than 60% possession in all four of its matches, outshooting its opponents in the tournament by a whopping 70-23 margin.
After struggling to navigate a low block against Sweden, the Spaniards have shown they can effectively break it down now after thrashing Slovakia and erasing that one-goal deficit against Croatia. This is going to be another game where they are going to have to break down a similar tactical approach.
Switzerland’s defense in its two matches against Italy and France were terrible. Over those games, the Swiss allowed a total of six expected goals, 67 touches in their penalty area and were outshot by 43-23 margin. Now, Switzerland faces a country that has created the most chances in this entire tournament.
However, Switzerland has been lethal on the counterattack. Its xG numbers aren’t up there with Spain, but they have the fourth-most passes that have led to a shot; fifth-most touches in the opponent’s penalty area; and, the fifth-most shot creating actions.
So, I do think the Swiss will be able to penetrate Spain’s defense, because it does like to play that high line. Switzerland has the pace to get in behind with Breel Embolo, plus Spain’s two center backs aren’t great in the air. So, Haris Seferović might have some chances off crosses for the underdogs.
That said, I have 2.96 goals projected for this match, so I love over 2.5 goals anything up to -125 odds as my top pick.
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Anthony Dabbundo: Italy ML (+135) vs. Belgium
- Odds available at DraftKings
Belgium is one of the more overrated teams in the entire tournament, as it has faced two good opponents and was outplayed by both. The Red Devils were only to be saved by moments of individual brilliance from Thorgan Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne against Portugal and Denmark, respectively.
The Belgians completed just two passes into the penalty area against Portugal and its defense allowed 15 second-half shots. Credit to the nation for holding on, but Belgium’s pressure success rate is low. It doesn’t pressure the ball nearly as well as Austria, which gave Italy some issues.
On the other hand, the Italians needed extra time to get by Austria, but its underlying numbers are still plenty impressive. Italy’s attack ranks second in final third touches and third in penalty area touches, while conceding the fewest expected goals in the entire tournament.
Italy will dominate the midfield in this game. Leonardo Spinazzola should be able to create overloads up the left to generate mismatches against Belgium’s back three defenders. And the Red Devils will not have Eden Hazard or potentially De Bruyne to connect the midfield to Romelu Lukaku up top.
While Belgium snuck by Denmark and Portugal, Italy is a step up in overall quality, which is a step too far for ailing Belgium. Italy wins this in 90 minutes.
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Jeremy Pond: Italy To Advance (-150) vs. Belgium
- Odds available at DraftKings
As I mentioned in my game preview, I really think Belgium is going to be up against it with Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard clearly not at 100 percent if they even step on the pitch.
Belgium struggled to create multiple quality chances against Portugal, which was by no means one of the tournament’s better defensive outfits, even with De Bruyne on the field. The Red Devils wound up with a minuscule 0.2 xG in the victory over the Portuguese, which basically came from Thorgan Hazard’s beauty of a goal at the end of the first half.
In contrast, Azzurri have looked great the majority of the tournament, dominating at both ends of the field. Defensively, three of their four opponents have registered 0.5 expected goals or less against them. Offensively, Italy has a combined 7.0 xG, with the most (1.9) coming in the win over Wales.
For those reasons, I’m backing Italy to advance at -150 odds via BetMGM as my top selection. I expect these odds to jump even more if either De Bruyne or Hazard (or both) are sidelined, so I’d get this play in now at the lowest number you can find.
