Clive Mason – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (33) Red Bull Racing RB16B Honda on track during the F1 Grand Prix of Bahrain at Bahrain International Circuit on March 28, 2021 in Bahrain, Bahrain
Odds to Win 2021 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix
| Driver | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +140 | 36.67% |
| Lewis Hamilton | +145 | 35.92% |
| Valtteri Bottas | +560 | 13.33% |
| Sergio Perez | +1800 | 4.63% |
| Charles Leclerc | +5000 | 1.73% |
| Pierre Gasly | +5000 | 1.73% |
| Carlos Sainz | +7000 | 1.24% |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +8000 | 1.09% |
| Lando Norris | +8000 | 1.09% |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +12500 | 0.70% |
| Lance Stroll | +40000 | 0.22% |
| Fernando Alonso | +40000 | 0.22% |
| Sebastian Vettel | +40000 | 0.22% |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.18% |
| George Russell | +50000 | 0.18% |
| Kimi Raikkonen | +50000 | 0.18% |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | +50000 | 0.18% |
| Nicholas Latifi | +50000 | 0.18% |
| Mick Schumacher | +50000 | 0.18% |
| Nikita Mazepin | +50000 | 0.18% |
After a 20-day break, Formula 1 is back for its second race of the season with the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.
F1 added this event to the schedule last season to make up for lost races during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the first race at Imola since 2006, so we don’t have a ton of recent data.
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the favorite for Sunday’s race at +140 at PointsBet; Lewis Hamilton is +145. Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas is +560, and Red Bull’s Sergio Perez sits at +1800 following lackluster Friday practice sessions.
Depending on the book, Verstappen or Hamilton is the favorite, or they’re dead even.
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Last season at Imola, Bottas took the pole from Hamilton by 0.097 seconds, and both were more than a half second better than Verstappen. Hamilton ended up winning the race with Bottas second and Daniel Ricciardo third (then with Renault). Verstappen was poised for a second-place finish before an “instantaneous puncture” knocked him out late in the race.
So far this year, Red Bull has had the fastest car in Formula 1, despite Hamilton’s strategically superior win in the season opener at Bahrain. Verstappen went off in that race at -175 (54.02% probability to win) with Hamilton at +190 (29.27%), so it’s a big move from the opener.
Mercedes had the two fastest cars in Friday’s FP2 at Imola with Gasly just 0.078 seconds behind Bottas. Verstappen had an issue early in the session and ended up with the 14th-fastest car. Red Bull’s Perez was sixth, with both Ferraris and Gasly ahead of him.
Rain is likely for race day, so could we get another midfield car hitting the podium like Ricciardo last season? McLaren will surely be a favorite amongst bettors in some of the more niche markets this weekend, with Lando Norris’s P4 finish in Bahrain and Ricciardo’s P7 that could have been even better. The McLaren cars are each +600 to hit the podium, and -125 for a top six finish.
If you’re playing an “experience on a unique track” angle, look no further than AlphaTauri. It’s the only team to test its car at Imola this season since the team is headquartered just down the road. Gasly is +600 to hit the podium with teammate Yuki Tsunoda at 18-1.
Gasly qualified P4 here last season, but did not finish because of a water pressure issue. AlphaTauri disappointed in Bahrain, so it might be a good buy-low spot.
Gasly also won a rainy race in Italy last season, the first of his career. Carlos Sainz, now with Ferrari, finished second in that race, with Lance Stroll third.