Getty Images. Pictured: Darren Waller, Josh Allen and Davante Adams.
That’s right everyone — Week 1 is here! Our long wait is finally over. Excitement for the new NFL season aside, let’s make sure we start our fantasy seasons right. Drafts are done, now it’s time to execute.
If you want to contend for your fantasy football championship in 2021, you have to be diligent about in-season management. And a big part of that is making start/sit decisions.
To help you start strategizing for Week 1, I’ve outlined the early version of my fantasy football rankings into tiers so you can better visualize the drop-off in expected production at each position.
As always, there will be a ton of volatility in how I adjust my rankings up until kickoff, so be sure to check my updated rankings before making final decisions. I’ll also publish an updated version of these tiers before Sunday’s kickoff, but for now, let’s dive into the initial version of my Week 1 tiers!
Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
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| QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF |
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (vs. CLE)
Kyler Murray (@ TEN)
Josh Allen (vs. PIT)
Josh Allen has the toughest matchup of this trio as he faces a Steelers defense that ranked No. 1 in pass DVOA last season. However, he is matchup-proof and is still a “must start”– just temper expectations this week.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray.Tier 2
Lamar Jackson (@ LV)
The Ravens wanted to open up the playbook and become less run-heavy in 2021, but we might not see that come to fruition until later in the season. Lamar Jackson missed part of camp due to COVID, Marquise Brown missed most of camp due to a hamstring injury, and first-round pick Rashod Bateman will begin the season on IR. Therefore, we could see Jackson lean on his rushing ability (even more) early in the season, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for fantasy purposes.
Tier 3
Tom Brady (vs. DAL)
Jalen Hurts (@ ATL)
Russell Wilson (@ IND)
New Falcons defensive coordinator Dean Pees loves to blitz, but that could be a recipe for disaster against a mobile quarterback like Jalen Hurts. It was a small sample size (45 dropbacks), but Hurts ranked in the top 10 in nearly every metric against the blitz last year. So it will not surprise me if Hurts posts the top QB score of Week 1.
Tier 4
Ryan Tannehill (vs. ARI)
Aaron Rodgers (@ NO)
Dak Prescott (@ TB)
Dak Prescott could get off to a slow start to 2021. He’s returning from an ankle injury that ended his season in Week 5 last year and a shoulder injury that sidelined him for the entire preseason. To make matters even worse, he will be without stud RG Zack Martin (due to COVID) against the defending Super Bowl champs. As a result, he’s a low-end QB1 option for Week 1.
Tier 5
Trevor Lawrence (@ HOU)
Justin Herbert (@ WAS)
Matthew Stafford (vs. CHI)
Trevor Lawrence couldn’t ask for a better matchup in his NFL debut. He should be able to post low-end QB1 numbers against the Texans.
This week, Justin Herbert is on the QB1/2 fringe as he faces a stout Washington defense. He could get off to a slow start this year as he may need one or two games to become familiar with the new scheme under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.
Tier 6
Matt Ryan (vs. PHI)
Joe Burrow (vs. MIN)
Kirk Cousins (@ CIN)
Sam Darnold (vs. NYJ)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. LAC)
Jimmy Garoppolo (@ DET)
This group is full of potential Week 1 “streaming” options to choose from. Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jimmy Garoppolo all offer high-end QB2 upside and are widely available in most leagues.
Tier 7
Teddy Bridgewater (@ NYG)
Tyrod Taylor (vs. JAX)
Baker Mayfield (@ KC)
Derek Carr (vs. BAL)
Carson Wentz (vs. SEA)
I wouldn’t want to rely on any of these QBs outside of 2QB/Superflex formats. Baker Mayfield offers the highest ceiling of this tier as he could be forced into a pass-heavy game script against the Chiefs.
Tier 8
Daniel Jones (vs. DEN)
Mac Jones (vs. MIA)
Zach Wilson (@ CAR)
Jameis Winston (vs. GB)
Tua Tagovailoa (@ NE)
Ben Roethlisberger (@ BUF)
Nearly every QB in this tier has a high ceiling/low floor combo for Week 1. Considering almost all of his pass-catchers are dealing with injuries, Daniel Jones could struggle early in the season.
Tier 9
Jared Goff (vs. SF)
Tier 10
Andy Dalton (@ LAR)
Tier 11
Taysom Hill (vs. GB)
Justin Fields (@ LAR)
Trey Lance (@ DET)
None of these QBs are playing this week, but they could see some playing time at the expense of their team’s starter.
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RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey (vs. NYJ)
Dalvin Cook (@ CIN)
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.Tier 2
Alvin Kamara (vs. GB)
Tier 3
Derrick Henry (vs. ARI)
Tier 4
Joe Mixon (vs. MIN)
James Robinson (@ HOU)
Austin Ekeler (@ WAS)
Aaron Jones (@ NO)
James Robinson gets a massive boost from his Week 1 matchup against the Texans. The Jaguars are 3-point favorites and should lean on Robinson heavily. If he ends up posting a huge score this week, it might not be a bad idea to sell high. Robinson had zero competition for touches last season but will have Carlos Hyde stealing some rushing work and (potentially) Duke Johnson stealing some passing down work. As a result, he should settle in as a mid-range RB2 after this week.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Austin Ekeler did not practice Wednesday due to a hamstring injury — be sure to check out my updated tiers on Saturday when we will surely have more information about his injury.
Tier 5
Jonathan Taylor (vs. SEA)
Nick Chubb (@ KC)
Najee Harris (@ BUF)
Chris Carson (@ IND)
Antonio Gibson (vs. LAC)
Nick Chubb should have his way with a Chiefs defense that ranked 31st in DVOA against the run last season. The matchup should be even easier now that LB Willie Gay is out with a multi-week injury. However, Chubb has a lower floor than usual this week due to the potential for the Browns to be trailing for much of the game, which would be a more favorable game script for Kareem Hunt.
Tier 6
Saquon Barkley (vs. DEN)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. CLE)
Ezekiel Elliott (@ TB)
David Montgomery (@ LAR)
Mike Davis (vs. PHI)
Raheem Mostert (@ DET)
Saquon Barkley is expected to suit up for Week 1, but he could be eased back into action. I have him penciled in as my RB14, but we will want to monitor him closely. Check out my updated tiers this Saturday once we have more information on his status.
I highlighted Raheem Mostert as a good target if you need a back who will outperform his ADP early in the season. He is a solid RB2 option this week against the Lions. However, I still think Trey Sermon will be the more valuable 49ers back for the fantasy playoffs.
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Tier 7
Miles Sanders (@ ATL)
Gus Edwards (@ LV)
I view the Le’Veon Bell signing as a more significant blow to Ty’Son Williams’ fantasy value than I do for Gus Edwards. Nevertheless, he should be a lock for 13+ carries against a porous Raiders defense and return low-end RB2 value this week.
Tier 8
D’Andre Swift (vs. SF)
Josh Jacobs (vs. BAL)
Myles Gaskin (@ NE)
Damien Harris (vs. MIA)
Darrell Henderson (vs. CHI)
This week, the Patriots are 3-point home favorites, which means it should be an ideal game script for Damien Harris. Rhamondre Stevenson is dealing with a thumb injury that could prevent him from seeing more than just a few carries in his NFL debut. So there is a chance that Harris ends up getting 20+ carries in this game, including all of the goal-line opportunities. I’m viewing him as a low-end RB2.
Tier 9
Chase Edmonds (@ TEN)
Kareem Hunt (@ KC)
Chase Edmonds and Kareem Hunt offer sneaky upside this week, considering both will thrive in negative game scripts this year.
Tier 10
Melvin Gordon (@ NYG)
Jamaal Williams (vs. SF)
Trey Sermon (@ DET)
Leonard Fournette (vs. DAL)
Javonte Williams (@ NYG)
Ronald Jones II (vs. DAL)
James Conner (@ TEN)
Devin Singletary (vs. PIT)
It’s hard to be excited about any of these backs, but all of them offer RB3/Flex appeal this week. A few of them could break out this week with a big game and sneak into the RB2 discussion for Week 2.
Tier 11
Nyheim Hines (vs. SEA)
James White (vs. MIA)
David Johnson (vs. JAX)
Kenyan Drake (vs. BAL)
Zack Moss (vs. PIT)
Tevin Coleman (@ CAR)
A.J. Dillon (@ NO)
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WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Davante Adams (@ NO)
Tier 2
Tyreek Hill (vs. CLE)
Calvin Ridley (vs. PHI)
Stefon Diggs (vs. PIT)
Tier 3
DeAndre Hopkins (@ TEN)
A.J. Brown (vs. ARI)
Justin Jefferson (@ CIN)
Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Jefferson.Tier 4
DK Metcalf (@ IND)
No surprises in Tiers 1-4. They are all no-brainer plays in all formats.
Tier 5
Robert Woods (vs. CHI)
Julio Jones (vs. ARI)
Keenan Allen (@ WAS)
Terry McLaurin (vs. LAC)
Adam Thielen (@ CIN)
CeeDee Lamb (@ TB)
Tyler Lockett (@ IND)
Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI)
Brandon Aiyuk (@ DET)
Brandon Aiyuk has been dealing with a hamstring injury that sidelined him for about a week. He practiced fully on Wednesday, but we want to monitor him before setting our lineups on Sunday. If you are having doubts about starting Aiyuk this week, remember that he finished as a top-12 WR 42% of the time last year (ranked fifth among all WRs).
Tier 6
Chris Godwin (vs. DAL)
Amari Cooper (@ TB)
Mike Evans (vs. DAL)
Chris Godwin (quad) had an injury scare to begin the week, but it looks like he will be good to go for Thursday.
Tier 7
D.J. Moore (vs. NYJ)
Tee Higgins (vs. MIN)
Tier 8
Robby Anderson (vs. NYJ)
Allen Robinson (@ LAR)
Deebo Samuel (@ DET)
Diontae Johnson (@ BUF)
This week, Allen Robinson should be viewed as a low-end WR2 option as he faces off against shutdown CB Jalen Ramsey. Next week, he will return to Tier 4-5 range with a much easier matchup against the Bengals.
Tier 9
Odell Beckham Jr. (@ KC)++
Tyler Boyd (vs. MIN)+
Laviska Shenault (@ HOU)+
Jerry Jeudy (@ NYG)
Brandin Cooks (vs. JAX)
D.J. Chark (@ HOU)++
Courtland Sutton (@ NYG)++
Chase Claypool (@ BUF)++
Ja’Marr Chase (vs. MIN)++
Jarvis Landry (@ KC)+
Corey Davis (@ CAR)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ BUF)+
Marquez Callaway (vs. GB)++
Jaylen Waddle (@ NE)
Marvin Jones (@ HOU)
Antonio Brown (vs. DAL)
Marquise Brown (@ LV)++
Kenny Golladay (vs. DEN)++
Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. SEA)
+ high floor
++ high ceiling
When making a sit/start decision for WR, I like to consider the range of outcomes each WR provides. If I am a pretty big favorite, I lean toward starting a WR with a high floor. In that situation, we want to avoid getting a “dud,” and guaranteeing a handful of points from our WR3 is all we need. On the other hand, if I’m a pretty big underdog, I’ll want to raise my team’s ceiling and take a chance on a high risk/reward option; therefore, I will lean toward a player with a high ceiling.
Any WR without a label means they have a reasonably balanced floor/ceiling combo.
Tier 10
DeVante Parker (@ NE)
Devonta Smith (@ ATL)++
Curtis Samuel (vs. LAC)
Michael Gallup (@ TB)++
Mike Williams (@ WAS)
+ high floor
++ high ceiling
Tier 11
Darnell Mooney (@ LAR)++
Cole Beasley (vs. PIT)+
Jakobi Meyers (vs. MIA)+
Elijah Moore (@ CAR)
Sterling Shepard (vs. DEN)+
Russell Gage (vs. PHI)+
Nelson Agholor (vs. MIA)++
Henry Ruggs (vs. BAL)++
Rondale Moore (@ TEN)+
Bryan Edwards (vs. BAL)
Terrace Marshall (vs. NYJ)
Mecole Hardman (vs. CLE)++
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TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (vs. CLE)
Tier 2
Darren Waller (vs. BAL)
George Kittle (@ DET)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Darren Waller.Tier 3
Mark Andrews (@ LV)
Kyle Pitts (vs. PHI)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. SF)
Hopefully, you were able to snag a top-six tight end in your draft(s), and you can stop reading here.
For those of you that decided to wait at TE…
Tier 4
Logan Thomas (vs. LAC)
Logan Thomas is stuck in TE purgatory. He doesn’t quite have the upside needed to join the elite TE1 Tiers, but he is the next best option. Curtis Samuel suffered a setback at practice by re-injuring his groin and his Week 1 status is now in doubt. If he ends up sitting out this week, Thomas could end up seeing an extra target or two.
Tier 5
Tyler Higbee (vs. CHI)
Noah Fant (@ NYG)
Dallas Goedert (@ ATL)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (@ NO)
Mike Gesicki (@ NE)
Jonnu Smith (vs. MIA)
Noah Fant is dealing with a knee injury that could limit his playing time in Week 1. We will need to monitor his status closely, and it’s probably a good idea to start looking into a potential backup plan, just in case he can’t suit up.
Hunter Henry missed a ton of camp due to a shoulder injury, which means Jonnu Smith could be a sneaky play this week. He could be a player Mac Jones leans on early in the season.
Tier 6
Rob Gronkowski (vs. DAL)
Anthony Firkser (vs. ARI)
Jared Cook (@ WAS)
Austin Hooper (@ KC)
Hunter Henry (vs. MIA)
Gerald Everett (@ IND)
The TE position has thinned out in this range over the past couple of weeks due to injuries to Irv Smith Jr., Adam Trautman and Evan Engram.
Anthony Firkser and Jared Cook are the top streaming options this week.
Tier 7
Tyler Conklin (@ CIN)
Zach Ertz (@ ATL)
Cole Kmet (@ LAR)
Juwan Johnson (vs. GB)
Dawson Knox (vs. PIT)
Tyler Conklin is a sneaky Week 1 flier in deeper leagues. Last season, when Kyle Rudolph missed the final four games, Conklin split time with Irv Smith Jr. and still managed to post the TE15 score over that stretch. Now that both Kyle Rudolph and Smith are out of the picture, the sky is the limit for Conklin.
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KICKERS
Tier 1
Harrison Butker (vs. CLE)
Justin Tucker (@ LV)
Younghoe Koo (vs. PHI)
Ryan Succop (vs. DAL)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Younghoe Koo.Tier 2
Tyler Bass (vs. PIT)
Robbie Gould (@ DET)
Jason Myers (@ IND)
Matt Gay (vs. CHI)
Mason Crosby (@ NO)
Josh Lambo (@ HOU)
Tier 3
Ryan Santoso (vs. NYJ)
Matt Prater (@ TEN)
Brandon McManus (@ NYG)
Daniel Carlson (vs. BAL)
Sam Ficken (vs. ARI)
Evan McPherson (vs. MIN)
Quinn Nordin (vs. MIA)
Rodrigo Blankenship (vs. SEA)
Ka’imi Fairbairn (vs. JAX)
Tier 4
Jason Sanders (@ NE)
Dustin Hopkins (vs. LAC)
Greg Zuerlein (@ TB)
Graham Gano (vs. DEN)
Chase McLaughlin (@ KC)
Jake Elliott (@ ATL)
Greg Joseph (@ CIN)
Tristan Vizcaino (@ WAS)
Aldrick Rosas (vs. GB)
Austin Seibert (vs. SF)
Matt Ammendola (@ CAR)
Chris Boswell (@ BUF)
Tier 5
Cairo Santos (@ LAR)
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DEFENSES
Tier 1
Los Angeles Rams (vs. CHI)
Tier 2
Denver Broncos (@ NYG)
San Francisco 49ers (@ DET)
New England Patriots (vs. MIA)
Carolina Panthers (vs. NYJ)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ WAS)
Atlanta Falcons (vs. PHI)
Tier 3
Green Bay Packers (@ NO)
Buffalo Bills (vs. PIT)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ HOU)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. DAL)
Miami Dolphins (@ NE)
Seattle Seahawks (@ IND)
Washington Football Team (vs. LAC)
Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chase Young.Tier 4
New York Giants (vs. DEN)
Minnesota Vikings (@ CIN)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. CLE)
New York Jets (@ CAR)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. SEA)
Baltimore Ravens (@ LV)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ ATL)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ BUF)
Houston Texans (vs. JAX)
Tier 5
Chicago Bears (@ LAR)
Tennessee Titans (vs. ARI)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. MIN)
Detroit Lions (vs. SF)
Tier 6
Arizona Cardinals (@ TEN)
Dallas Cowboys (@ TB)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. BAL)
New Orleans Saints (vs. GB)
Tier 7
Cleveland Browns (@ KC)
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