Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Smith (12) and Chaundee Brown (15) of the Michigan Wolverines men’s basketball team.
Two years ago, Ryan Collinsworth introduced a way to identify college basketball teams that fit the statistical profile of a national champion.
His research and team profiling yielded 10 teams that qualified as National Title Contenders in the final version of his weekly column. Every single one of those 10 teams made the Sweet 16, and the top-ranked team in Collinsworth’s model, Virginia, won the national championship.
For those interested in a deeper understanding of Collinsworth’s statistical methods and qualifications, please refer to his debut article establishing the statistical profile of a national champion.
In this season’s final update, we will highlight every team whose statistical profile still fits our profiles as either National Title Contenders or Final Four Dark Horses. Additionally, in the final section of this article, I’ll dive deep into the profile for one of our top title contenders this season: The Michigan Wolverines.
Statistical Methods & Qualifications
I initially analyzed all college basketball teams based on three metrics — each sourced from Ken Pomeroy — to determine which could win the national title this season:
Adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO): Points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents
Adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD): Points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents
Adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM): The difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency
I correlated each of these metrics with NCAA Tournament performance. Adjusted efficiency margin has the highest correlation, which suggests that well-balanced teams are more successful in the postseason.
We established that national champion-caliber teams generally boast an AdjEM score of 23.81 or higher. This threshold serves as the primary qualifying factor in our analysis.
In another article on our Final Four dark horse candidates, we also established statistical thresholds for AdjO and AdjD. Generally, Final Four teams boast an AdjO score of 114.0 or higher and an AdjD score of 96.2 or less.
Teams must fulfill all three of the above criteria in order to qualify as a national championship contender.
The 2020-21 National Championship Contenders
After cross-referencing 2020-21 teams with an AdjO of 113.9 or higher, an AdjD of 96.0 or lower, and an AdjEM of 23.91 or higher, we’re left with seven national championship contenders as of writing:
The 2020-21 Final Four Dark Horses
After cross-referencing 2020-21 teams with an AdjO of 113.9 or higher and an AdjD of 96.0 or lower (following the conclusion of play on March 10), we’re left with 15 teams that fit our profile as Final Four Dark Horse candidates.
Seven of those teams (Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Houston, and Villanova) also qualify as National Championship Contenders. However, eight other teams remain that have strong resumes to make the Final Four — or better:
Each of our National Championship Contenders and Final Four Dark Horses are represented below based on their current AdjO and AdjD, in order to help you visualize their standing relative to previous national champions and Final Four teams:
First Four Out
The following four teams are knocking on the door for Final Four Dark Horse contention, but each of them still has some ground to make up in order to qualify (AdjO of 113.9 or higher | AdjD of 96.0 or lower).
Notable Teams Excluded From Contention
Our list of seven National Title Contenders notably excludes the following teams, each of which is ranked in the current AP Top 25 poll and boasts 65-1 odds or better to take home a championship this season:
Michigan Wolverines: The Profile of a Champion
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| Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images |
There are a ton of Michigan fans out there — myself included. For example, Michigan holds the biggest share of “Fans” per KenPom subscribers:
Current top 10 teams by share of my subscribers. The legacy of Big Ten Wonk is strong here. Also, my server gets hammered after every Michigan game. One of every 18.5 committed subscribers is a Michigan fan. pic.twitter.com/I1Z4SBqZev
— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) February 27, 2021
Therefore, I believe many Action Network subscribers would love to know why the Wolverines are a legitimate National Title contender this year.
I grew up in Ann Arbor, MI and have been watching Wolverines basketball my whole life. I’ve watched a lot of Michigan teams over the years, and I’ve never seen a Wolverines team with as much chemistry and talent as this one.
That’s why I bet a Michigan national title future at 8-to-1 earlier this season.
Between its advanced metrics, player personnel and coaching, Michigan has everything needed to win six straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s dig into the Wolverines’ championship profile.
Michigan’s Advanced Metrics
As outlined in previous versions of this column, teams must meet specific metrical thresholds for adjusted efficiency in order to qualify as a National Title Contender, based on statistical precedent.
So, how does Michigan stack up?
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO)
- Threshold = 113.9
- Michigan = 119.4 (+5.5)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD)
- Threshold = 96.0
- Michigan = 87.7 (+8.3)
Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM)
- Threshold = 23.91
- Michigan = 31.72 (+7.81)
As you can clearly see above, Michigan absolutely crushes those metrical thresholds.
Moreover, Michigan is just one of three teams in the country in the top-10 in both AdjO and AdjD (Illinois, Houston) while holding the unique distinction as the only team in the top-6 in both metrics. Simply put, the Wolverines have the best combination of offensive and defensive talent and efficiency of any team in the country.
There are some potential offensive issues given that Michigan isn’t the strongest team in the country on that end of the court. However, on defense is where Michigan is really dangerous.
The Wolverines boast the best AdjD of any current National Title Contender. That’s awesome, because in the Feb. 16 edition of this column, Michigan still lagging behind Gonzaga and Baylor on that end.
Michigan must continue to improve defensively in order to hold its own with offensive powerhouses like Gonzaga, Baylor and Illinois. Nonetheless, it seems clear that Juwan Howard and company are up to that task.
Let’s take a look at the all-important offensive and defensive Four Factors.
Michigan’s Four Factors
The best thing about Michigan is that it takes, and makes, a lot of good shots while forcing a lot of bad ones.
On the offensive end, Michigan is shooting 53.9% from 2-point range and 38.6% from 3-point range. While it trails Gonzaga, Baylor and Illinois in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), it still ranks 20th in the country in that metric (55.3%).
Michigan is also great with the ball. It only turns the ball over on 17% of its possessions while averaging over 15 assists per game. The team shares the ball incredibly well while making clean, smart passes.
The team’s biggest issue is that it doesn’t draw fouls at a very high rate. In fact, its 29.2% free throw rate is the lowest of any National Title Contender. The Wolverines only attempt 16.3 free throw attempts per game, which ranks 10th in Big Ten play this season.
Michigan is a pass-first team that doesn’t want to rely on iso-ball. As a consequence of that offensive philosophy, its players are not aggressive in their attempts to draw fouls in order to score points. However, when the team does get to the free throw line, it converts those opportunities extremely efficiently. Michigan has knocked down 76.9% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season, which ranks second in the Big Ten.
However, Michigan also doesn’t commit fouls very often — and therefore does not allow opponents to score easy points at the charity stripe. Its defensive free throw rate is 24.9%, and it only allowed 14.5 free throw attempts per game in conference play.
Of course, the Wolverines don’t just prevent opponents from scoring at the free throw line. Michigan prevents opponents from scoring, period. Big Blue boasts the best defensive eFG% of any KenPom top-10 team, sans Houston. At 44.1%, Michigan ranks fourth in the country in that stat.
Once again, the defensive end is where the Wolverines are truly dangerous. That’s due to a group of players that are long, athletic and versatile defenders.
But the Wolverines are so much more than their numbers. Let’s talk more about Michigan’s roster.
Michigan’s Player Personnel
While Michigan boasts a talented roster from top-to-bottom, including great bench pieces like Chaundee Brown and Austin Davis, four starting players drive the Wolverine machine.
Mike Smith, Point Guard
The first such player is graduate-transfer point guard Mike Smith. Smith seamlessly transitioned from one of the highest usage scorers at Columbia into the main facilitator at Michigan.
Smith is one of the quickest and shiftiest guards in the nation, and he’s nearly impossible to stop with a full head of steam. However, his main role is running the offense, where he paces the team in assists with five per game.
He’s perfect for an offense that uses a lot of early shot clock screens and pick-and-rolls to generate open looks. Smith uses his speed to attack defenses early and aggressively, and then excels at identifying the open man based on which offensive set Michigan is running.
Hunter Dickinson, Center
Smith works perfectly with the second player on this list — freshman big man Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson has been a revelation this season, leading the Wolverines in points, rebounds and blocks per game.
Smith and Dickinson are incredibly dangerous in the pick-and-roll. With Dickinson’s size (7-foot-1, 265 pounds) and ability, he easily finds open space when Smith draws both defenders — or, when the opposing guard switches onto him, Dickinson easily leverages his size and post position.
However, Dickinson is also great at playing one-on-one in the post. He’s an elite back-to-the-basket scorer and excels at finding his teammates when the defense double-teams him.
The Wings: Isaiah Livers & Franz Wagner
The teammates Dickinson often finds via the post are Michigan’s two stellar forwards: Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner. Both players are elite two-way wings who shoot efficiently while defending multiple positions.
Livers is the most talented player on the roster, and he’s also the most important. Over the past two seasons, Michigan is 34-9 when Livers plays and just 4-6 when he doesn’t. He’s one of the most efficient shooters in college basketball, scoring 13.7 points per game on an absurd shooting split of 46.8% from the field, 44.6% from 3, and 87.0% from the free throw line.
Meanwhile, Wagner is the “glue guy” of the team. Not only does he score 12.9 points per game on over 50% shooting from the field, but he also averages 6.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Wagner does everything, and he does everything well.
The Michigan wing players do a few monumentally important things.
First, either player can be the leading scorer on any given night. Livers has scored 20 or more points three times in the past seven games — and directly proceeding that stretch, Wagner scored 20 or more points in three straight contests.
Second, the two defend at a high level and can switch onto any player on the floor. The defensive flexibility that they provides Juwan Howard cannot be overstated.
Finally, the duo makes a high percentage of their 3-point attempts. While Livers is ridiculously efficient from deep, Wagner holds his own from deep range, boasting a highly respectable 39.2% 3-point shooting percentage.
So, when Dickinson dishes the ball out to them from the post, Smith drives the lane and then kicks to them or the Wolverines swing the ball around the horn and either of them take the shot … there’s a good chance it’s going in.
Bottomline: The Michigan roster is filled with highly talented and versatile players who fit perfectly together. A team with this high level of talent and chemistry is nearly impossible to beat when it’s in sync.
Juwan Howard deserves his Big Ten Coach of the Year award.
Final Analysis
Outside of the letdown game to the Spartans last Sunday, Michigan has only played two poor games all year. Furthermore, the Wolverines have been cold-blooded in each of their other 19 games, including winning five straight following a 23-day COVID-19 hiatus.
As of writing, Michigan is priced at +450 on DraftKings to win the NCAA Tournament. While the ankle injury that Eli Brooks sustained last Sunday at Michigan State could be problematic, there’s simply too much talent and ability across the rest of the roster to ignore.
Michigan is a legitimate National Title Contender. Its lethal combination of offensive and defensive efficiency should have Baylor and Gonzaga shaking in their boots.