Christian Verheyen/Borussia Moenchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Yann Sommer.
The most exciting soccer weekend of the new season is upon us, with high-profile games in almost all of Europe’s main five leagues.
In Italy, defending league champions Inter Milan play host to Atalanta, who have stumbled out of the gate in terms of performances but remain fourth in the Serie A table. Lazio and Roma renew the Rome Derby in the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, while league leaders Napoli put their perfect record on the line at home against Cagliari.
Real Madrid has dominated the opening fixtures of the Spanish schedule, but always tricky Villarreal makes a road trip to Madrid this weekend to try to hand Madrid its first defeat of the season.
In Germany, Borussia Monchengladbach has had a terrible start under new manager Adi Hütter, and former Gladbach manager Marco Rose visits Borussia Park on Saturday with his new team, Borussia Dortmund. With a total set at 3.5, that game should feature plenty of open and attacking play.
Paris Saint-Germain doesn’t face a huge test at home against Montpellier in France, but perhaps the most interesting battle in Ligue 1 is between resurgent Marseille and upstart Lens. Both sides have excelled to start the season and the matchup could show who’s really mounting a top-3 charge.
Below are the projections for the four main European leagues outside of the Premier League. If you’d like to read more about how BJ determines his projections, you can check it all out here.
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La Liga Projections
Best Bet
Valencia vs. Athletic Bilbao
| Valencia Odds | +150 |
| Bilbao Odds | +195 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Valencia has had an excellent start to the La Liga campaign, but they were sent back to earth in their last two matches with defeats to Real Madrid and Sevilla. They have solid underlying numbers thus far, but not nearly as good as their league table position would indicate.
Part of that is running a bit hot, as they have a +4 goal difference and a +2 xG difference and part of that is winning a bunch of close games. There are signs in the early returns that Valencia is much improved from last season, but also a very real chance that’s just short term statistical noise.
Our Action Network projections show Bilbao as the better side, even playing on the road in this match. Bilbao was much better last year, has been equally as good in performances this year and shouldn’t be underdogs.
Athletic Bilbao has only lost the xG battle in one game all year and has gotten deserved results with Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. They were unfortunate to concede a stoppage time winner to Rayo Vallecano in the midweek and on the draw no bet line, show value in this matchup with Valencia.
Pick: Athletic Bilbao — Draw No Bet (-110 or better)
Serie A Projections
Best Bet
Inter Milan vs. Atalanta
| Inter Milan Odds | +100 |
| Atalanta Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Inter Milan’s attack has been one of the best in all of Europe through five league matches in 2021-22. The Nerazzurri may have lost excellent attackers Achraf Hakimi and Romelu Lukaku, but the replacements in Joaquin Correa, Edin Dzeko and Denzel Dumfries have easily made up the loss in production.
Only Bayern Munich is averaging more goals per match in Europe’s top five leagues than Inter, but the Nerazzurri attack is also a bit regression bound in upcoming fixtures. Their attack is finishing at a ridiculously unsustainable rate and given the quality of chances, shouldn’t have 18 goals in five matches.
They’ve almost doubled their xG total with 18 goals from 9.6 expected goals for. That kind of short term finishing could happen to any team at any time, but because it happened early in the year for Inter, it’s seen as a baseline that they have no chance of actually maintaining throughout Serie A play.
Correa, Dzeko and Milan Skrinar have eight combined goals in league play from 2.4 xG and none of them have shown any evidence of scoring at anywhere close to that rate throughout their careers.
On the other side, Atalanta’s shot and goal numbers have dipped considerably from their stratospheric highs of years past. Their pressing is down a bit, their shot numbers and xG numbers are down too. It could just be a blip, but La Dea have especially struggled away from Bergamo.
Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-130 or better)
Bundesliga Projections
Best Bet
Gladbach vs. Dortmund
| Gladbach Odds | +310 |
| Dortmund Odds | -130 |
| Draw | +330 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The biggest game of the Bundesliga weekend is also where we go for my best bet in Germany, and it’s an excellent buy low spot on Gladbach at home. Since their opening day draw at home against Bayern, the Foals have been terrible. A 4-0 loss to Leverkusen, a 2-1 loss at Union Berlin and a 1-0 road loss to Augsburg have pushed Gladbach into the relegation zone.
Their performances haven’t been nearly as bad, even though Gladbach only has one win against Arminia Bielefeld to date. Gladbach is 10th in xG difference despite playing the league’s toughest schedule thus far. They’ve played Bayern tighter than anyone else, played even with Leverkusen and Union away based on the quality of the chances created.
With Gladbach, it’s been more a run of bad variance and injuries than bad performances. They’ve only scored five goals from 8.6 expected and injuries in attack to Marcus Thuram and defense to Stefan Lainer haven’t helped Hütter’s side. Jonas Hoffman has only played about half of Gladbach’s minutes and striker Breel Embolo has barely played since recovering from injury.
Embolo and Hoffman should be available in this game and their ability to play direct and on the counter is a perfect antidote to breaking through Dortmund’s leaky defense. Dealing with Erling Haaland will surely be a challenge for Gladbach’s porous defense thus far, but the Black and Yellows are a bit overpriced away from home.
Anything plus money or better is good value on Gladbach to take a point from this match, and a money line sprinkle isn’t a bad bet either.
Pick: Gladbach +0.5 (+100 or better)
Ligue 1 Projections
Best Bet
Marseille vs. Lens
| Marseille Odds | -125 |
| Lens Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | BeIN Sports |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The most Ligue 1 intriguing game this weekend takes place in France’s second largest city as Lens makes the trip from the north of France to Marseille for a battle of two top four teams on Sunday. Marseille is unbeaten in the league with four wins and two draws, while Lens has just one defeat, a home loss to Strasbourg after they had just 10 men.
Both teams have been legitimately good thus far in league play, ranking in the top four in expected goal difference and actual goal difference. Our projections show these teams to be a little closer than they actually are though, based on performances dating back to last season as well.
Marseille was a worse team than Lens in 2020-21, despite a higher finishing position in the league. OM has been buoyed by breakout star Cheikh Ahmadou Dieng, who is unlikely to sustain his 1.07 xG per 90 standing with three league goals already in the campaign. Forward Dimitri Payet is also finishing at a rate of more than double his expected goals, which cannot possibly continue.
Lens has some regression indicators with players playing above their level too, but the overall matchup shows this to be a bit closer than the betting market indicates. Marseille is rightly favored at home, but overpriced.
That said, back Lens to get at least a point from this match.
Pick: Lens +0.5 (-110 or better)