Justin Setterfield/Getty Images. Pictured: Ruslan Malinovskyi.
Ukraine vs. Austria Odds
| Ukraine Odds | +270 |
| Austria Odds | +320 |
| Draw | -113 |
| Over/Under | 2 (+123 / -152) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Sunday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Ukraine and Austria meet for their final match of Group C play under interesting circumstances.
Both teams come into the final match level on points and goal difference. Ukraine currently hold the next tiebreaker of total goals scored by one goal over Austria, and both countries would more than likely qualify for the knockout stage with a draw, so we could have another 1982 World Cup situation, known as the Disgrace of Gijon.
There really isn’t much difference between second and third place in the group because second place would play Italy and third would either play the winner of Group E or F.
Ukraine Impressing With Attacking Game
The Ukrainians have come into this tournament on the front foot, playing a very open free-flowing style of soccer. Andriy Shevchenko’s team has created 4.52 expected goals (xG) through their first two matches against the Netherlands and North Macedonia.
Coming into the tournament, Ukraine were very overrated, having only registered a +0.9 xGD in Euro 2020 qualifying despite winning their group.
Now, if this was a match under normal circumstances, I would be fading Ukraine because their defense has been incredibly shaky through their first two matches. The Dutch created 2.05 xG against them, and even North Macedonia created 1.50 xG.
The Ukrainians are also inferior in midfield in this game. The Netherlands carved them up by completing 93% of their passes, and Austria has potentially a better midfield than the Dutch with Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer, who both play for RB Leipzig, and Wolfsburg standout Xaver Schlager.
Austrian Midfield Leads the Way
It will be interesting to see what Austria do in this match. Are they content with making the knockout stage and taking third place, or do they go for second place and take on Italy in the first round?
Austria’s midfield combination of Sabitzer, Laimer and Schalger is about as good as you’ll see in this tournament. Sabitzer plays a more attacking, creative role, while Schlager and Laimer serve as the more defensive ball-winners. Then, of course, David Alaba is directing traffic in defense while also going forward on the counter.
Again, under normal circumstances, I think Austria would have a ton of value in this match, but I have no idea what the Austrians’ plan of attack is in this match. I wouldn’t be surprised if Austria plays very defensive and for the draw, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they try to take advantage of a few counter attacks.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’ll be honest, I am at a loss for words with the odds on this match. I have only seen odds like this on a soccer match one other time and that match ended in a 1-1 draw. I think the most likely scenario for this match is a 1-1 draw, so I am going to play that exact score prop a +300, but I wouldn’t play it any lower than that.
Pick: Exact Score 1-1 +300
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