Marcio Machado/Getty Images. Pictured: Ozan Tufan.
Switzerland vs. Turkey Odds
| Switzerland Odds | -155 |
| Turkey Odds | +410 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-127 / +106) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Switzerland and Turkey both need a win to prolong their stay at Euro 2020 heading into their group finale on Sunday afternoon.
The Swiss are clearly in the better position. A win would take them to four points, making it highly likely they would advance, at worst, as one of the top four third-place group finishers.
Turkey need something closer to a miracle (coach Senol Gunes even said as much), having lost to Italy and Wales by a combined five goals.
Only a lopsided victory Sunday would see them have any chance of snagging one of the top four third-place spots, since goal differential is the first tiebreaker after points earned.
Switzerland Need Blowout Win
The Swiss come into this one as heavy favorites, owing more to Turkey’s poor performances than their own strong ones.
They clearly controlled proceedings in an opener against Wales, only to leave Kieffer Moore unmarked off a short corner for a 74th-minute equalizer.
Mario Gavranovic’s apparent late winner 11 minutes later was rightly ruled offside.
Then the Swiss were every bit as poor against Italy as Turkey had been six days prior. The Azzurri — who admittedly have been fabulous — were deserved 3-0 winners against both opponents.
Chance creation in the matches was almost identical also, with Italy creating 1.8 expected goals (xG) and conceding just 0.3 against the Swiss, according to StatsBomb. The xG ratio was 1.7 to 0.2 in Italy’s favor against Turkey.
Striker Breel Embolo has Switzerland’s goal, and he and fellow forward Haris Seferovic have been good for 1.0 xG combined. They could use some more threatening play from Switzerland’s midfield supporting cast.
Turkey Have Failed To Meet Expectations
Despite the expectations on this squad, outwardly there was no panic from Turkey’s camp following the defeat to Italy.
Apparently it was a ruse.
Turkey’s defensive struggles were particularly flummoxing in a 2-0 defeat to Wales that could’ve been worse had Gareth Bale not missed a second-half penalty.
But this may have owed to impatience. Wales entered in need of a win, while Turkey could’ve controlled its own destiny with a draw (unless Wales earned a highly unlikely win against Italy on the final day.)
Instead the Turks played into Welsh hands with an overly direct approach early that nearly led to a couple calamities on the other end.
Later in the half, it appeared Gunes’ side had finally figured out the way to win the match was to use their technical superiority to control the ball and the tempo.
But then, Bale connected with Aaron Ramsey minutes before the break, exhausting whatever reserve of patience may have been left.
Veteran striker Burak Yilmaz has been poor for Turkey, but at least he’s been trying. His 0.37 xG are a team high on a squad where only three players have above 0.10 xG in chances this tournament.
Betting Analysis & Pick
It would be malpractice to ignore Turkey’s performance against Wales, but it’s also crucial not to overreact.
The latter is one of only two ways you can explain the three-way line that has what remains a talented Turkish squad as such heavy underdogs.
Our own BJ Cunningham projects the Turks — who have defeated France and the Netherlands in Euro 2020 and 2022 World Cup qualifying, respectively — to have a 24.5% chance of victory.
The implied probability of Turkey’s odds is 19.6%.
If there’s another legitimate reason to more heavily favor the Swiss, it’s motivation. If Turkey play indifferently knowing they’re eliminated, then this line makes sense.
To me, that’s unlikely. Turkey will still be playing in front of a heavily partisan crowd in Baku. And there’s a recent history of this squad performing well in similar circumstances five years ago, defeating Czech Republic 2-0 on the final group matchday despite having slim to nil chances of advancing.
If anything, Turkey may benefit from lifting the burden of expectations. I’m not favoring them, per se. But +410 odds are too generous not to take.
Pick: Turkey ML (+410)
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