David Ramos/Getty Images. Pictured: Thiago.
Spain vs. Sweden Odds
| Spain Odds | -286 |
| Sweden Odds | +850 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via PointsBet | |
Spain are solid favorites to win Group E, given that they will play all three matches at home and are much better than all of the other three sides in the group — Sweden, Poland and Slovakia.
Of the three other teams in Group E, the betting markets see Monday’s clash with Sweden as the second toughest for Spain, after Poland. Sweden received some unfortunate COVID-19 news as potential breakout young forward Dejan Kulusevski is out of Monday’s clash after a positive test. That, along with general steam toward home teams thus far in the tournament, has seen Spain shoot up from -220 to -286 on the moneyline as of Sunday night.
As one of the top teams in the whole field, Spain shouldn’t have much trouble beating Sweden, but there are ways that Sweden’s defense could be difficult to break down that keep this game lower scoring.
Spain Enter Euros With Different Look
This Spain team isn’t like the Spain of old in that they will look to play loads of possession football and suffocate opponents with short passes before eventually finding the through ball to score goals. Yes, the Spanish strength is in the midfield, but they’re a more up-tempo side than teams of the past.
Spain will still play in its traditional 4-3-3, and the main reason I don’t trust the attack to generate chances is that it’s not clear who the best players are to fit those attacking roles.
Manager Luis Enrique could go with Rodri, Thiago and Sergio Busquets in midfield, but it’s easy to see how that group will struggle to link up with the attack enough to create consistent chances and break down Sweden’s 4-4-2 defense. The fullback situation is likely to be Marcos Llorente — more of a midfielder in build-up play — on the right and longtime left back Jordi Alba.
Alvaro Morata (Juventus) will probably start up top with Ferran Torres, who is coming off an up-and-down debut season at Manchester City — wide to the right, looking to take on Swedish defenders.
Spain is the kind of team I expect to grow into the tournament, while they may have some issues figuring out their tactics and best players in the group stage, where they still should have no issues progressing to the knockouts. If Spain get caught funneling balls out wide and swinging in too many crosses, they will struggle to produce chances and score goals.
Swedes Adjust to Life Without Kulusevski
Had Kulusevski not been ruled out for this game due to COVID-19, I’d have backed Sweden here, but he’s too important to their attack with Alexander Isak up top to trust Sweden to score without him.
While Spain has issues at the back and will likely start the out-of-form Eric Garcia or youngster Pau Torres alongside Aymeric Laporte, Sweden is unlikely to get enough time on the ball to play Isak in behind against this Spanish side. Kulusevski is the perfect combination with Isak, and Emil Forsberg as a free-roaming creator could have made this Swedish offense really dangerous. Isak provides the shots and the runs in behind, Forsberg has excellent passing range and Kulusevski can take on defenders and link-up play.
Instead, the Swedish attack will run through Isak and Marcus Berg, who is more of a target man. Sweden will put nine or 10 guys behind the ball and should be difficult to break down, maybe even settling for a defeat if they can keep the scoreline respectable to maintain a solid goal difference.
And the list of names on the team sheet may not impress for Sweden, but this is a similar back four, goalkeeper and midfield pair from the World Cup team in 2018 that got numbers behind the ball and was difficult for Germany, Mexico and Switzerland to break down.
The Swedes have a style of play and set formation that players understand, making them a cohesive unit.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This isn’t a game that Sweden will want to open it up and for that reason, this could be a slow start and low-scoring affair. Losing by a crooked number would hurt Sweden significantly both within the group and in potential third-place tiebreakers.
Without Kulusevski, the Swedish attack will often leave Isak isolated and the Spanish control of the midfield areas could sit on this game with conservative possession if they do grab the lead.
For that reason, I like under 2.5 goals at -115 or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-115 or better)
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