Alex Livesey – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.
Portugal vs. Germany Odds
| Portugal Odds | +220 |
| Germany Odds | +135 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+106 / -127) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
The “Group of Death” keeps on giving.
Saturday brings a star-filled matchup between reigning European champion Portugal and perennial powerhouse Germany.
Portugal did its job in the opening match of Euro 2020, using three second-half goals to dispatch Hungary, while Germany was unable to break down France in a 1-0 loss.
While it’s reasonable to expect Germany to beat Hungary and have a goal difference capable of advancing to the Round of 16 with just three points, a result from this game would provide a massive boost.
The same could be said for Portugal, which doesn’t want to go into a match against France coming off a loss and is in need of a point to ensure passage to the knockout rounds.
It’s a big game, and I, like you, can’t wait. Let’s break it down.
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Portugal Set for First “Group of Death” Clash
Portugal looked poised for a frustrating result on Tuesday against Hungary, but its quality came through in the end. Raphael Guerreiro broke through with a deflected goal in the 84th minute before Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice to give the Portuguese a massive boost in goal differential with a 3-0 win.
Portugal had 1.13 expected goals at halftime, most of which came on a golden opportunity that fell to Ronaldo from five yards out just before the interval. Creating chances proved to be a problem for the Portuguese, who need more from Bruno Fernandes moving forward.
Fernandes has to be better than he was in Game 1 if Portugal has any hope of retaining its title. The Manchester United star has been known to go missing at times in big games, and his performance against Hungary was not encouraging with Germany and France up next.
Most of the chance creation came from out wide, with Guerreiro proving to be a key man at left back. Without Joao Cancelo on the right, the Borussia Dortmund man is going to be key for Portugal in this tournament. He will push up the left wing, which will allow Diogo Jota and Ronaldo to primarily keep central positions.
One possible change for Portugal would be to start Renato Sanches, the midfielder who was a dynamo off the bench at Euro 2016 and is coming off a Ligue 1-winning season at Lille. Sanches’ skillset sounds more like a winger than a central midfielder, offering great pace and burst moving forward in the middle of the field. He was a game-changing force against Hungary, and starting him in place of either Jota, Bernardo Silva or Fernandes isn’t inconceivable.
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Will Germany Change Things Up?
While Germany lost its opening game, there’s reason for optimism coming out of it.
The Germans put plenty of pressure on France in the second half, although it wasn’t enough to break down the best defense in international soccer. Germany lacked a killer instinct, which isn’t a surprise given the absence of a player who is a true, out-and-out striker.
Joachim Low has played a 3-4-3 of late, and it was fine against France but not good enough to get a result. It was a significant change from the 4-2-3-1 that Germany has primarily used during Low’s tenure, with either Mesut Ozil or Thomas Muller operating as a No. 1 behind a striker.
There’s reason to believe the 3-4-3 could work against Portugal, but the quality going forward could lead to a change. If Leon Goretzka is fit, a midfield with him, Ilkay Gundogan and Toni Kroos is mouthwatering, behind an attack that would likely feature three of Muller, Serge Gnabry, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner.
Either way, the Germans are a well-drilled, experienced team, even though some of the pieces are relatively new to the national team setup.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Since the start of Euro 2016, Portugal has two wins and five draws in group play. It advanced at the last European Championships because of the inclusion of some third-place teams going through.
Since the return of international play last September, Portugal is winless in four games against France and Spain (two apiece). It beat Croatia and Sweden twice each, both of which are respectable teams but not on the level of the elites.
I expect Portugal to take care of business against lesser opposition, but it’s tough to back it against top teams. Even back in Euro 2016, its path to the final was Croatia, Poland and Wales. Its World Cup run in 2018 was ended by Uruguay.
The Germans haven’t exactly been convincing over the past nine months, but there were positives to take from the loss to France. Their team is full of experienced winners, both internationally and at the club level.
In a big game against a big team, I expect the Germans to come through. It’s what they do. At a plus number, I’ll back them to give Ronaldo 90 full minutes of frustration, not just the 83 that Hungary provided.
The best number on Germany is +135 at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon, so our action goes there.
Pick: Germany +135
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