Eric Verhoeven/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Netherlands star Memphis Depay.
Netherlands vs. Czech Republic Odds
| Netherlands Odds | -152 |
| Czech Republic Odds | +440 |
| Draw | +295 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Saturday morning via DraftKings. | |
Things could get extremely interesting in Budapest on Sunday when the Netherlands takes on Czech Republic in a Euro 2020 Round of 16 match.
The Dutch absolutely rolled through Group C at the tournament, finishing with a perfect 3-0 to sit atop the quartet. After a 3-2 win over Ukraine on debut, the Netherlands earned a 2-0 shutout against Austria before rolling to a 3-0 triumph over lowly North Macedonia.
In contrast, the Czechs had a lot more work to do to reach the knockout stage. Following a 2-0 victory over Scotland in its first game, Czech Republic settled for a 1-1 draw with gritty Croatia before suffering a 1-0 defeat against Raheem Sterling and England. Thankfully for the Czechs, four points were enough to book their place in this phase of the competition.
Let’s take a look at these sides to see where the betting value sits, with the winner advancing to the quarterfinal round.
Offensive Prowess, Stingy Defense Pace Netherlands
It goes without saying the Dutch have been one of the best sides in this competition. Front to back, they’ve been the complete package under manager Frank de Boer.
Memphis Depay and captain Georginio Wijnaldum have led the offensive onslaught, plus they’ve gotten some unlikely help from right back Denzel Dumfries. The PSV Eindhoven man has two goals, including the game winner against a pesky Ukraine side.
According to FBref.com statistics, the Dutch have put up some gaudy numbers when it comes to expected goals so far. Check out their numbers below.
| OPPONENT | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Austria | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| North Macedonia | 2.9 | 0.8 |
Now, maybe we should take these metrics with a grain of salt. Two of these opponents are not like the other, with Austria — despite reaching the elimination round — and North Macedonia not what I’d call “top-flight” competition. Neither looked good against the Dutch, or maybe it was just the Dutch looking too good for either side to show anything positive.
Regardless, the Netherlands should have their way with Czech Republic, but it will be interesting to see how it plays away from home soil. The Dutch played every group match at Johann Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam, so perhaps we could see a little regression coming from them on foreign turf.
Schick, Czech Republic Ready to Play Spoiler
If you’re a fan of the Czechs, you have to be happy they’ve made it to this point after a really difficult set of group-stage contests. Outside of the Group F foursome, one could argue Group D was the second toughest of all, so getting through has to have this nation excited about this meeting with the Dutch.
Honestly, Czech Republic deserved to make the knockout phase, and I would have been disappointed had it missed out. Granted, the Czechs lost the battle of expected goals in two of their three matches, but they more than proved themselves as being among the best 16 left in the tournament.
Patrik Schick has been a breath of fresh air, scoring all three of the country’s goals thus far. The talisman, who plies his trade with Bundesliga power Bayer Leverkusen, could pose a major issue to the Netherlands due to the fact its defense has shown some leaks at times.
Taking a look at those xG numbers, the only time Czech Republic was on the better end of the metric was against Croatia, where it held a 2.0-1.1 edge in the category. And despite earning that opening win, the Czechs were on the wrong side of a 1.8-0.9 xG margin against the Scots. They finished with a 0.8-0.3 xG disadvantage in large defensive battle with England.
Betting Analysis & Pick
We could be in for a real firecracker of an affair. The Netherlands has been relentless on its attack, and Czech Republic has proven it can more than hang with the best. I don’t see either taking a defensive posture, with both likely getting after it right out of the gate.
For that reason, I’m backing the total to go over 2.5 goals at -113 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. I firmly believe we’re going to see an open affair, with an early goal from one of these combatants. If that happens, things will open up and we could be in for an electric match.
Our own, BJ Cunningham, has forecasted this match to finish with 2.58 expected goals, which just adds to my confidence in the selection.
I’m also going to tack on both teams to score at -120 odds. I simply can’t see the Netherlands keeping Schick and the Czechs in check for 90 minutes, especially after watching the favorite blow a two-goal lead — before bagging a late winner — against a lesser side in Ukraine.
Bottom line, this is an ultra-intriguing match that should be fun to watch.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-115) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-121)
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