Claudio Villa/Getty Images. Pictured: Leonardo Bonucci (left) and Manuel Locatelli.
Italy vs. Wales Odds
| Italy Odds | -200 |
| Wales Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -160) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Odds updated Saturday evening via PointsBet. | |
The final round of group play is here, as Group A concludes play on Sunday with simultaneous matches.
Italy has already booked its place in the knockout stage with consecutive dominant 3-0 wins over Turkey and Switzerland, but the Azzurri need at least one point at home against Wales to clinch the top spot in the group.
Wales impressed in a 2-0 win over Turkey in their last match, which means they are almost certain to make the knockout stage and should have no issues getting through, even with a loss.
That changes the calculus for these two sides, especially in the second half, with both managers potentially having one eye on the knockout stage. If Wales draws, they clinch second. If they lose a tight game, they’ll almost certainly be runners-up.
Dominant Italians Eye Third Straight Win
Italy’s underlying numbers from their first two games are really impressive when you take a closer look at them. Not only have the Italians been stout defensively, allowing zero big scoring chances and fewer than 0.3 xGA in both matches, but they have completely dominated in attacking areas and had no issues with ball progression.
While some favorites like France, Spain and England have struggled to turn possession into chances, Italy has had no such issue in their first 180 minutes. Manager Roberto Mancini has a midfield three with clearly defined roles, an excellent wing back on the left in Leonardo Spinazzola and a clicking attacking trio. Lorenzo Insigne tucks in from the left, Domenico Berardi provides the width from the right and Ciro Immobile has been impressive with two goals in the middle.
They have the second most key passes, fourth most passes into the final third and second most progressive passes of any team in the tournament thus far. Only Denmark has tallied more shots, and only the Netherlands has more non-penalty expected goals through two matches.
Even though Italy’s finishing has been above average through two matches, the underlying numbers suggest it is no fluke.
Can Wales Thrive Against Strong Italian Defense?
Few teams have looked more different between their first two matches than the Welsh did in their 2-0 thrashing of Turkey in Baku on Wednesday.
After picking off a fortunate draw with Switzerland despite being outplayed in the first match, Wales played right through an underwhelming Turkish midfield with ease at times.
Wales are reliant on counter attacking, getting Gareth Bale on the ball with time and space in transition with an ability to pick out passes into the penalty area. When given that time, Wales can be very dangerous going forward. Italy isn’t likely to cede much space to Wales, though, and Bale may struggle to get into this game if Italy presses the Welsh and pins them in their own half.
This game sets up to be much more like the Switzerland game, in which Wales lost the xG battle 0.5-1.4 and needed a late equalizer to salvage a point. Switzerland had much more control of the ball in dangerous positions, as Italy will in this game. Meanwhile, the Welsh counter attack failed to really make its imprint on the game because of a lacking defensive solidity.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The full-game moneyline is priced in that Italy has less motivation to really win this game, as it has taken a dive since the circumstances set in that Italy only need a draw to top Group A.
However, there’s no reason to expect them not to play a strong lineup, one that should be able to dominate Wales in the opening 45 minutes before Mancini looks to potentially rotate his squad.
Italy will be able to shut off Wales’ counterattacking and should be solid enough defensively on set pieces. Also, the Italians’ interchanging attack should create enough chances to take a lead into halftime.
Anything plus-money is a good number on Italy in the opening 45 minutes.
Pick: Italy first half moneyline +115 (+100 or better)
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