Christof Stache/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Kai Havertz.
Germany vs. Hungary Odds
| Germany Odds | -560 |
| Hungary Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+106 / -127) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Germany looks to win Group E on Wednesday when they host bottom-of-the-group Hungary in their final group-stage match.
Germany looked like a completely different team against Portugal than one we saw lose to France 1-0. The Germans came out with much more pace and aggressiveness in their attack, and it paid off in the form of four goals against a side that conceded only six goals during Euro 2020 qualifying.
With a win and a France draw or loss, Germany would win Group F and set up a very favorable draw in the knockout stage.
Hungary got a massive result against France in their second match, drawing the defending World Cup champions 1-1 at home. They needed to hold on for dear life in the final 25 minutes of the game after Antoine Griezmann leveled the match in the 67th minute.
It’s pretty simple for Hungary. They need to win to qualify for the knockout stage, which means they have a tall task in Munich on Wednesday.
Germans Look To Build Off Stellar Performance
Germany was amazing against Portugal. After conceding the opening goal, they lived in Portugal’s half of the field for the rest of the match with 34 touches inside the penalty area. They also allowed their wingers to use their pace on the outside to create chances and then played Havertz as a No. 9, which worked to perfection. All four of Germany’s goals came off of crosses.
This match against Hungary is going to be very similar to Portugal’s opening match against the Hungarians. Even though Hungary need to win, their best path to victory is playing very defensive and trying to hit Germany on the counter.
Some bad news for Germany coming into this match is that their longtime attacking midfielder/center forward Thomas Mueller is going to miss this match due to injury.
So the Germans are going to have plenty of scoring chances, but the question is whether they can convert against a team that will consistently keep 10 men behind the ball.
Hungary Set To Defend for Euro 2020 Lives
Hungary actually had the worst offense coming into the tournament, averaging only 1.14 xG per match throughout Euro and World Cup qualifying and that has carried into this tournament, as the Hungarians have created a total of 0.84 expected goals through their first two matches.
As we’ve seen from Hungary, they tend to cater to their defense, as they usually set up in a 3-5-2, which ends up becoming a 5-3-2 as they’ve gotten pinned in for most of the match against both Portugal and France. They probably will do the same against Germany because it’s the strength of their team since its two best players are RB Leipzig teammates in goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi and center back Willi Orban.
Hungary’s best path to victory here is to play defensive and try to hit Germany on the counter, they are not set up to play an open game with the Germans given the amount of pace they will have to deal with, so I see this match being a little lower scoring than expected.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I really don’t see a scenario where Hungary scores in this match since Germany is going to have them pinned into their own 18-yard box for most of the match. I also see a scenario in which Germany goes up by two or three goals and takes their foot off the gas pedal.
Since I only have 2.71 goals projected for this game, I am going to back Under 3.5 goals at -127.
Pick: Under 3.5 goals (-127)
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