Alex Pantling/Getty Images. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.
France vs. Switzerland Odds
| France Odds | -175 |
| Switzerland Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+118/ -143) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Sunday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
France entered Euro 2020 as the tournament favorites and after winning the Group of Death with a win against Germany and draw with Portugal, the French remain as tournament favorites. But they don’t have an easy round of 16 match against Switzerland on Monday in Bucharest, Romania.
Switzerland are a perennial major-tournament knockout foe, and they are usually compact, difficult to break down and have some interesting attacking options. While they are clear underdogs in this match because France have more quality everywhere on the pitch, Switzerland impressed in the group stage and are undervalued in this matchup.
Despite a poor showing in Rome against Italy in the group stage, Switzerland can create some matchup issues for Les Bleus.
France’s Talent Wins Out
France ground out a win in the Group of Death by conceding just one goal from open play, showing again why their defense is the best in the world. There were two penalties allowed against Portugal, but France allowed just 0.8 xG to Germany despite leading for 70 minutes. They conceded 0.4 to Hungary and 0.5 non-penalty xG to Portugal.
It’s an elite defensive unit, but the questions come in attack. France have scored four goals at Euro 2020. A Mats Hummels own goal against Germany, a fluke goal off a goal kick that Hungary misplayed and a penalty against Portugal are included in those four. The fourth goal was an excellent through ball from Paul Pogba to Karim Benzema.
France’s attack just hasn’t been that good. They weren’t able to break through on the counter against Germany, which, after watching Germany be very vulnerable against Portugal and Hungary, is concerning. The French don’t really have clear attacking plans to break down low blocks, they don’t get much from their full backs getting forward, and their plan B of Ousmane Dembele on the wing is out with an injury.
In the end, the talent tends to come through. Benzema and Kylian Mbappé are two of the best attackers in the world, but France’s tactical plans in possession suggest that the whole is less than the sum of the parts. Switzerland won’t allow the space in behind that France typically thrives off of, and moving Ricardo Rodriguez into the back three should help deal with defensive solidity.
Switzerland Could Be Most Underrated Team
Switzerland needed a win against Turkey to make it into the knockout stage, but their performances suggest they’ve been one of the most underrated teams in the entire tournament. Wales and Turkey haven’t shown to be particularly good, but the Swiss dismantled both. Even though they settled for a 1-1 draw with Wales, they were the far better side and dominated the chances in the match.
For Switzerland, they don’t get many high-quality chances. They have the fourth lowest xG per shot in the tournament and among the longest shot distance. But they also have created plenty of shots through three matches, with only Denmark and Italy creating more per 90. The Swiss will probably need one moment of magic from long range to win this match, but they don’t need that to keep this game close and get it into extra time.
They’ve been net unlucky to concede as many goals as they have, with five goals allowed from 3.6 expected. A few excellent long shots from Turkey and Italy led to goals, but their overall defensive process has been pretty solid and above average across the tournament.
If there’s one area where France are vulnerable, it is up the wings against their two fullbacks, and Steven Zuber showed with his three assists against Turkey that he can affect the game as a wing back.
Betting Analysis & Pick
France haven’t shown an ability to break down a low block and create high-quality chances. Even in the 2018 World Cup that they won, France was much better sitting deep and running into space than they were against teams they had to break down. Switzerland’s defense has been solid throughout this tournament, and if France does get ahead, France hasn’t shown a true ability to get margin against quality opponents.
This game sets up to be a low-scoring game where France have the edge, but are overvalued because their name is carrying much more weight than their performances have shown thus far.
Pick: Switzerland +1 (-125 or better)
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