Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images. Pictured: France midfielder N’Golo Kanté.
France vs. Germany Odds
| France Odds | +165 |
| Germany Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +215 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+114 / -137) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Monday evening via DraftKings | |
When the Euro 2020 groups were announced, this was the match I immediately locked into my calendar as a must-watch affair.
Now, we’ve finally reached the biggest showdown of the tournament thus far that comes from the “Group of Death,” with juggernaut France taking on Germany in Tuesday’s high-profile affair at Allianz Arena in Munich.
France enters this competition looking to pull off the rare World Cup-Euro title double that it actually completed once before in its storied history. As for the Germans, they’re trying to win their fourth European crown, which they haven’t claimed since the 1996 edition of the tournament.
Picking up a debut victory would go a long way for both nations in their respective quests to win Group F, especially since Portugal should have its ways with overmatched Hungary in the day’s opening game. I firmly believe all of France, Germany and Portugal will advance to the knockout round, but the country that finishes first should have the easiest path to the semifinals via my projections.
Let’s take a look at these powerhouses and see where the value sits.
France Loaded With Offensive Weapons, Stingy Defense
It’s really hard to pick holes in Les Blues’ lineup or the way manager Didier Deschamps, who has led the nation since 2012, has picked his 26-man roster for this competition. The French are ranked second in the latest FIFA world rankings, sitting behind fellow tournament favorite Belgium.
France enters its Group F opener against Germany having gone unbeaten in 19 of its last 20 matches, with its lone defeat coming in a surprising 2-0 shutout defeat against Turkey in a Euro qualifying match a year ago. Other than that blemish, Les Blues have been a force to reckoned with and the deserved favorite to not only win this tough group, but capture the tournament crown.
When it comes to Deschamps’ tactical approach, I expect him to send Les Blues out in a 4-3-1-2 formation, with Kylian Mbappé (Paris Saint-Germain) and Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) up top. They will receive support from Antoine Griezmann (Barcelona) and have Paul Pogba (Manchester United) and N’Golo Kanté of Champions League winner Chelsea in midfield.
Talk about a ridiculous amount of talent, and I only named five of the French’s starting XI.
So, obviously, it’s going to take an awful special back four to keep this lineup of offensive weapons in check. France can devastate its foes in many ways, plus it doesn’t hurt when it has Olivier Giroud (Chelsea) waiting in the wings.
And as much as Les Bleus have the offensive goods, their defense is just as solid. Led by goaltender Hugo Lloris, France notched four consecutive shutouts leading into this opener and have posted eight clean sheets in their current 12-match unbeaten streak.
Germany Hoping to Send Löw Out on Championship Note
Things have taken quite the turn for manager Joachim Löw and the Germans, who won the 2014 World Cup and haven’t been quite the same since in major competition. This will also be Low’s last hurrah with Germany, with the veteran leader retiring at the completion of this competition.
Just four years ago, the Germans were the No. 1-ranked team in the world. Now, they’re sitting in 12th in the FIFA rankings, sandwiched between No. 11 Mexico and No. 13 Switzerland. Surely, the German players would love to send their longtime leader out on a winning note, but this team has been anything but great of late and will need to turn things around to make a deep run.
Germany had just one win in its three matches prior to this matchup with France, with its lone victory coming in a 7-1 win over lowly Latvia in a June 7 home friendly. The Germans were downright awful in the other matches, settling for a 1-1 draw with Denmark on June 2, their first match after a shocking 2-1 loss to North Macedonia in a World Cup qualifying match in late March.
Tactically, Löw will come out in either a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 formation. Regardless as to how they line up, you should expect to see Serge Gnabry (Bayern Munich), Kai Havertz (Chelsea) and Thomas Müller (Bayern Munich) leading the line. Veteran goaltender Manuel Neuer will guide the stingy defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Recent head-to-head history goes a long way with me in these types of affairs, so the fact that Les Bleus have gone unbeaten in the last five meetings against the Germans gives me plenty of confidence they can make it six in a row.
Throw in the fact France will want to solidify its status as the tournament favorite, and I see a situation where the reigning World Cup champions will dominate proceedings from start to finish.
For those reasons, I’m backing France via the Draw No Bet wager at -120 odds at DraftKings as my top pick. This is a safer play than a straight ML bet, due to the fact you’re getting your money back if the match ends in a tie. With some of the craziness that’s happened thus far (I see you, Spain), I’d rather eat a little more juice and give myself some protection in this battle of heavyweights.
Pick: France — Draw No Bet (-120)
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