Pictured: Bukayo Saka (r) by Harry Kane, Jesse Lingard.
England vs. Germany Odds
| England Odds | +150 |
| Germany Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+114 /-137) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Monday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The final day of the Round of 16 at Euro 2020 begins with a bang when England host Germany at Wembley Stadium.
Neither team was convincing in the group stage, although England topped Group D with seven points. Germany, meanwhile, got just four in the “Group of Death,” losing to France, dominating Portugal and needing late heroics to draw and advance against Hungary.
Star power will be on display in the English capital, and the hosts are favored, likely because of their winning run. Let’s break down who has the edge.
England’s Approach: Defense Wins Championships
Let’s get the English defense out of the way. Harry Maguire and John Stones have proven a capable pairing, both coming off strong seasons on either side of Manchester, while the same could be said of Kyle Walker and Luke Shaw at fullback.
With how manager Gareth Southgate has been lining his side up, those four along with two defensive midfielders (Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips) provide plenty of cover in the back. It’s clear the priority for England under Southgate at big tournaments is to keep the clean sheet. That was the case at the 2018 World Cup, and despite the impressive attacking talent in the squad, it remains the priority now.
Now, about that attack.
Coming into the tournament, everything went through Mason Mount, who operated as England’s No. 10. Mount and teammate Ben Chillwell just rejoined England after having to isolate due to COVID-19 restrictions, but it seems unlikely Mount starts against Germany.
England are coming off a 1-0 win that saw them have to change without Mount. Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling retained their starting places, while Jack Grealish and Bukayo Saka entered the starting XI. Grealish operated in Mount’s place. It was a similar start to England’s 1-0 win over Croatia, except they turned their early dominance into a goal. That was it, though, as they registered just 1.54 expected goals.
Like the 2018 World Cup, England have been given a very favorable draw, if they’re able to get past Germany. Southgate will no doubt feel that the emphasis will be placed on defense while having enough trust in his attack to create and produce enough to win.
It might not be sexy or how England fans want their national team to play, but Southgate’s men have shown they are more than capable of getting the job done.
Roller-Coaster Ride Continues for Germany at Euro 2020
What a bizarre tournament so far for Germany.
After being thoroughly contained in a 1-0 loss to France, Germany smashed Portugal 4-1 and were in position to potentially win Group F. Instead, they conceded an early goal against Hungary, and then 90 seconds after tying the game at 1, Leon Goretzka equalized late for a 2-2 draw. A win over Hungary would have topped both France and Portugal.
Germany’s 3-4-3 formation is tough to judge. On paper, it provides defensive stability while getting wingbacks Robin Gosens, who has a minor virus that manager Joachim Low said he hoped would pass before Tuesday, and Joshua Kimmich into very dangerous positions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goretzka take an injured Ilkay Gundogan’s starting place in midfield. It looks like Thomas Muller will be fit to start alongside Serge Gnabry and Kai Havertz going forward.
Playing at Wembley, Germany’s goal should be to avoid an early deficit. In their three group games, they conceded in the 20th, 15th and 11th minutes. That’s not an encouraging trend given England’s hot starts, although they have faded as games have progressed.
Mats Hummels was supposed to provide a veteran presence in the center of the German back three, but he has been exposed at times for his lack of pace at Euro 2020. His main task will be to mark Harry Kane, who it would seem is due for a goal after three straight below-average performances. Kane, though, isn’t known for his pace, so he could be a good matchup for Hummels.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both teams have massive potential but are yet to unlock it. England have been unconvincing at this tournament against lesser opposition than Germany, although the Germans have faced two of the best teams in the world and were neck and neck with both.
England have only lost twice since the return of international play in September 2020, to Denmark and Belgium. They’ve won all but one game since that Nov. 15 defeat to the Belgians (the draw against Scotland in the group stages) and seem to have a knack for finding ways to win under Southgate.
People who have read my Slack comments about England will be shocked to see that I’m picking them, but neither team has been hugely convincing in this tournament, and England have shown a penchant for getting results. I’ll back them to advance in the 90.
Pick: England +150
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