Steve Bardens – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Modric.
Croatia vs. Scotland Odds
| Croatia Odds | +125 |
| Scotland Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -122) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Odds updated Monday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
With so much uncertainty entering the final set of group-stage games at Euro 2020, there’s only one matchup that both teams have to win to advance.
A draw does no good for either Croatia or Scotland. They each have one point, and four should do the trick to seal a spot in the knockout stage. It could even get them second place in Group D.
Croatia is coming off a come-from-behind draw against Czech Republic and are missing a spark going forward. Scotland, meanwhile, defended for their lives against England and will have a big home-field advantage in Glasgow.
This is the matchup I am looking forward to most of the final round of group fixtures. Let’s break it down.
Croatia Have Edge in Experience, Quality
After starting with their typical 4-3-3 against England, Croatia drastically changed their shape against Czech Republic. The 4-4-2 didn’t yield great results, though, as Croatia registered just 1.03 expected goals. The goal they did score wasn’t from open play, instead a quickly taken free kick that created a one-on-one chance for Ivan Perišić that he turned into a clinical finish.
The change wasn’t a huge surprise given the 0.32 xG they created against England. While the English weren’t hugely threatening in that game after a hot start, Croatia never looked like it was winning that game.
In this game, they have more quality going forward. It’s going to be tough to match Scotland’s energy, but the likes of Perišić, Luka Modrić, Andreij Kramarić and Ante Rebić have played — and thrived — on some of the biggest stages in world soccer. While they haven’t clicked yet, there’s reason to believe they’re more likely to win this game than Scotland.
I expect Croatia will return to the 4-3-3. It’s their bread and butter, with Marcelo Brozović providing necessary steel in midfield to feed Mateo Kovačić and Modrić going forward.
Scotland Need to Find Attacking Spark
In their Euro 2020 opener, Scotland registered 2.31 xG while chasing a Czech Republic team that was sitting back and hoping to defend its lead. The Czechs were ahead 2-0 after 52 minutes, which gave Scotland plenty of time to put up what I think is a bit of a deceiving xG number. Scotland created just 0.99 against England in an admirable performance that was mostly focused on maintaining a strong defense.
The problem with Scotland is their lack of creativity going forward. There are quality players in defense and midfield with the likes of Kieran Tierney, Andrew Robertson, John McGinn and Scott McTominay. Even Billy Gilmour, who will miss this match after testing positive for COVID-19, looked good against England. Up top, though, the Scots are relying on the likes of Ché Adams and Lyndon Dykes, neither of whom is especially clinical in front of goal.
I expect Scotland to start this game focused on not conceding. They’ll know that breaking down Croatia and having to score twice will not fit them. If the Croatians score first, Scotland are all but eliminated.
They will need to show more attacking initiative than they did against England, though, and it’s tough to see that happening given their lack of quality going forward.
Betting Analysis & Pick
While I trust Croatia more to win the game, I am drawn toward the total in this game. I would expect Under 2.5 goals to be much higher than the -122 it is at FanDuel.
That’s a great value. It wouldn’t shock me if the first goal wins this game. Neither team has found a rhythm going forward, and I think it’s more of a wish than realistic hope for both to suddenly click in this game.
While I think Croatia has the quality to get the win, every game in this group has gone under the total. I’m expecting high intensity and an electric atmosphere at Hampden Park, but I’m not expecting a huge goal tally.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals -122
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